Nomograms predicting recurrence in patients with triple negative breast cancer based on ultrasound and clinicopathological features.

OBJECTIVES

The clinicopathological and ultrasound features associated with recurrence in patients with triple negative breast cancer (TNBC) were used to develop a nomogram to predict the prognosis of TNBC.

METHODS

Clinicopathological data of 300 patients with TNBC treated between July 2012 and September 2014 were retrospectively reviewed. The endpoint was progression-free survival (PFS). Prognostic factors were screened by multivariate COX regression to develop nomograms. The C-index and calibration curves were used to evaluate the predictive accuracy and discriminatory ability of nomograms.

RESULTS

Of 300 patients with TNBC followed-up for 5 years, 80 (26.7%) had PFS events. Five informative prognostic factors (large size, vertical orientation, posterior acoustic enhancement, lymph node involvement, and high pathological stage) were screened and used to construct a nomogram for PFS. The C-index of the PFS nomogram was 0.88 ( < 0.01, 95% confidence interval, 0.85-0.90), indicating good predictive accuracy.

CONCLUSIONS

We developed and validated a nomogram for predicting PFS in TNBC. Vertical orientation and posterior acoustic enhancement in ultrasound images of TNBC were associated with worse outcomes.

ADVANCES IN KNOWLEDGE

Patients with TNBC have a very poor prognosis and patients have a high risk of recurrence, and our study developed a nomogram based on ultrasound and clinicopathological features for TNBC patients to improve the accuracy of individualized prediction of recurrence and provide help for clinical treatment.