From the University of Texas Heath Science Center (C.E.J.), San Antonio; Mayo Clinic (L.K.J.), Rochester, MN; private practice (B.C.K.), Abington, PA; Harvard Medical School (N.R.R.), Boston, MA; University of Minneapolis (S.M.B.); American Academy of Neurology (B.T.L.), Minneapolis, MN; and University of Rochester Medical Center (R.A.G.), NY.
Neurology. 2021 Jun 1;96(22):1032-1040. doi: 10.1212/WNL.0000000000012031.
We describe a process of organizational strategic future forecasting, with a horizon of 2035, as implemented by the American Academy of Neurology (AAN) on behalf of its members, and as a model approach for other organizations. The participants were members of the 2018-2020 AAN Boards of Directors and Executive Team, moderated by a consultant with expertise in future forecasting. Four predetermined model scenarios of import to our field (1 "expectable," 1 "challenging," and 2 "visionary") were discussed in small groups, with alternative scenarios developed in specific domains. Common themes emerged among all scenarios: the importance of thoughtful integration of biomedical and information technology tools into neurologic practice; continued demonstration of the value of neurologic care to society; and emphasis on population management and prevention of neurologic disease. Allowing for the inherent uncertainties of predicting the future, the AAN's integration of structured forecasting into its strategic planning process has allowed the organization to prepare more effectively for change, such as the disruptions stemming from the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. The approaches outlined here will be integrated into future AAN operations and may be implemented to a similar effect by other organizations.
我们描述了一个代表其成员由美国神经病学学会(AAN)实施的组织战略未来预测过程,该过程可作为其他组织的模型方法。参与者为 2018-2020 年 AAN 董事会和执行团队的成员,由未来预测专家担任顾问进行主持。在小组成员中讨论了对我们领域重要的四个预先设定的模型情景(1“可预见”、1“具有挑战性”和 2“有远见”),并在特定领域制定了替代情景。所有情景都出现了共同的主题:将生物医学和信息技术工具深思熟虑地整合到神经科实践中的重要性;继续向社会展示神经保健的价值;以及强调人口管理和预防神经疾病。考虑到预测未来的固有不确定性,AAN 将结构化预测纳入其战略规划过程,使该组织能够更有效地为变革做好准备,例如由 2019 年冠状病毒病(COVID-19)大流行引起的破坏。这里概述的方法将被整合到未来的 AAN 运营中,其他组织也可以实施类似的方法以达到类似的效果。