Hamilton C J, Evers J L, Tan F E, Hoogland H J
Hum Reprod. 1987 Feb;2(2):103-7. doi: 10.1093/oxfordjournals.humrep.a136493.
Since ultrasonographic ovulation detection has been introduced many authors have speculated about the ovulation predictive value of this new technique. Reliable studies in this respect, however, are lacking. The present study describes ultrasonographic data of 158 spontaneously ovulating, infertile patients. Each patient contributed only one cycle to the study. To construct individual follicle growth curves serial follicular measurements were performed. A wide range existed in mean maximum diameters of the preovulatory follicles. Furthermore, the slopes of the follicle growth curves, as well as the durations of the follicle growth phases showed considerable variations. The intrinsic variability in the various characteristics of follicle growth makes a single measurement as accurate as serial measurements in predicting ovulation. A formula has been devised by means of the data of the first 100 women, which correlates follicular diameter with the time interval to ovulation. The formula was developed based on one randomly selected measurement per patient. The validity of the formula has been tested in 58 additional women, also contributing one measurement each. According to this validation the adequacy of the prediction rule was demonstrated. Ultrasound appeared to be a less sensitive method for prediction of ovulation than has been speculated by some investigators. It is, however, an improvement, compared to the prediction of ovulation based upon the length of the previous menstrual cycles. A single follicle measurement may therefore be helpful in timing post-coital tests or artificial inseminations, in addition to being an adjuvant to more reliable methods.
自从超声排卵检测技术被引入以来，许多作者对这项新技术的排卵预测价值进行了推测。然而，在这方面缺乏可靠的研究。本研究描述了158例自然排卵的不孕患者的超声数据。每位患者仅为该研究提供一个周期的数据。为构建个体卵泡生长曲线，进行了系列卵泡测量。排卵前卵泡的平均最大直径存在很大差异。此外，卵泡生长曲线的斜率以及卵泡生长阶段的持续时间也显示出相当大的变化。卵泡生长的各种特征的内在变异性使得单次测量在预测排卵方面与系列测量一样准确。通过前100名女性的数据设计了一个公式，该公式将卵泡直径与距排卵的时间间隔相关联。该公式是基于每位患者随机选择的一次测量得出的。该公式的有效性在另外58名女性中进行了测试，她们每人也提供一次测量数据。根据这次验证，证明了预测规则的充分性。超声似乎是一种比一些研究者推测的更不敏感的排卵预测方法。然而，与基于前一月经周期长度的排卵预测相比，它是一种改进。因此，单次卵泡测量除了作为更可靠方法的辅助手段外，可能有助于安排性交后试验或人工授精的时间。
