School of Maritime and Transportation, Ningbo University, Ningbo 315211, China.
Jiangsu Province Collaborative Innovation Center of Modern Urban Traffic Technologies, Southeast University, Road #2, Nanjing 211189, China.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2022 Jul 25;19(15):9052. doi: 10.3390/ijerph19159052.
Once unplanned urban rail disruptions occur, it is essential to evaluate the impacts on public transport passengers since impact estimation results enable transit agencies to verify whether alternative transit services have adequate capacity to evacuate the affected rail passengers and to adopt effective emergency measures in response to the disruptions. This paper focuses on estimating the impacts of unplanned rail line segment disruptions on rail passengers as well as original bus passengers, as the latter are overlooked in existing studies. A method of identifying affected rail passengers based on passenger tap-in time is proposed, which is helpful for evaluating the scale and origin-destination distribution of the affected passengers. Passengers' response behaviors are analyzed and modeled in a multi-agent simulation system. The system realizes the simulation of the multimodal evacuation process, in which a rule-based logit model is employed to describe passengers' travel selection behavior and the Monte Carlo method is utilized to address the issue of uncertainty in passengers' travel selection. In particular, the original bus passengers are integrated into the simulation and interact with rail passengers. Finally, some indicators assessing the impacts on rail passengers and bus passengers are presented, and a case study based on the Ningbo urban rail transit network is conducted.
一旦发生非计划性城市轨道中断事件，评估对公共交通乘客的影响至关重要，因为影响评估结果使交通机构能够验证替代交通服务是否有足够的容量来疏散受影响的轨道乘客，并针对中断事件采取有效的应急措施。本文侧重于估计非计划性线路段中断对轨道乘客以及原始公交乘客的影响，因为现有研究忽略了后者。提出了一种基于乘客进站时间识别受影响轨道乘客的方法，这有助于评估受影响乘客的规模和起讫点分布。在多主体仿真系统中分析和建模了乘客的响应行为。该系统实现了多模式疏散过程的仿真，其中基于规则的对数模型用于描述乘客的出行选择行为，蒙特卡罗方法用于解决乘客出行选择中的不确定性问题。特别是，将原始公交乘客纳入仿真并与轨道乘客进行交互。最后，提出了一些评估对轨道乘客和公交乘客影响的指标，并基于宁波城市轨道交通网络进行了案例研究。
