Dunham R G, Alpert G P
Adolescence. 1987 Spring;22(85):45-57.
The purpose of this study was to test an empirically based prediction model of school dropout on a sample of 137 juvenile delinquents, some who have dropped out and some who have remained in school. The specific factors among the many found in previous research that are salient for predicting whether delinquent youths will drop out or remain in school were determined. An important finding of this study is that it required only four factors to yield a high level of prediction: misbehavior in school, disliking school, the negative influence of peers with respect to dropping out and getting into trouble, and a marginal or weak relationship with parents. The four factors identified create a model that is directly applicable to prevention strategies and is extremely parsimonious.
本研究的目的是在137名青少年罪犯样本上测试一个基于实证的辍学预测模型,这些青少年中有些已经辍学,有些仍在上学。在先前研究发现的众多因素中,确定了对预测违法青少年是否会辍学或继续上学具有显著意义的具体因素。本研究的一个重要发现是,只需四个因素就能产生高度的预测效果:在学校的不当行为、不喜欢学校、同龄人在辍学和陷入麻烦方面的负面影响,以及与父母的关系边缘或薄弱。所确定的这四个因素创建了一个可直接应用于预防策略且极其简洁的模型。