1Department of Neurological Surgery, University of California, San Francisco.
2Pediatric Stroke and Cerebrovascular Disease Center, Department of Neurology, University of California, San Francisco.
J Neurosurg Pediatr. 2022 Jun 3;30(2):203-209. doi: 10.3171/2022.4.PEDS21470. Print 2022 Aug 1.
OBJECTIVE: Ruptured brain arteriovenous malformations (bAVMs) in a child are associated with substantial morbidity and mortality. Prior studies investigating predictors of hemorrhagic presentation of a bAVM during childhood are limited. Machine learning (ML), which has high predictive accuracy when applied to large data sets, can be a useful adjunct for predicting hemorrhagic presentation. The goal of this study was to use ML in conjunction with a traditional regression approach to identify predictors of hemorrhagic presentation in pediatric patients based on a retrospective cohort study design. METHODS: Using data obtained from 186 pediatric patients over a 19-year study period, the authors implemented three ML algorithms (random forest models, gradient boosted decision trees, and AdaBoost) to identify features that were most important for predicting hemorrhagic presentation. Additionally, logistic regression analysis was used to ascertain significant predictors of hemorrhagic presentation as a comparison. RESULTS: All three ML models were consistent in identifying bAVM size and patient age at presentation as the two most important factors for predicting hemorrhagic presentation. Age at presentation was not identified as a significant predictor of hemorrhagic presentation in multivariable logistic regression. Gradient boosted decision trees/AdaBoost and random forest models identified bAVM location and a concurrent arterial aneurysm as the third most important factors, respectively. Finally, logistic regression identified a left-sided bAVM, small bAVM size, and the presence of a concurrent arterial aneurysm as significant risk factors for hemorrhagic presentation. CONCLUSIONS: By using an ML approach, the authors found predictors of hemorrhagic presentation that were not identified using a conventional regression approach.
目的:儿童破裂性脑动静脉畸形(bAVM)与较高的发病率和死亡率相关。既往研究中关于儿童 bAVM 出血表现的预测因素的研究有限。机器学习(ML)在应用于大数据集时具有较高的预测准确性,可作为预测出血表现的有用辅助手段。本研究的目的是使用 ML 结合传统回归方法,基于回顾性队列研究设计,确定儿科患者出血表现的预测因素。
方法:作者使用 186 名儿童患者在 19 年研究期间的数据,实施了三种 ML 算法(随机森林模型、梯度提升决策树和 AdaBoost),以确定对预测出血表现最重要的特征。此外,还进行了逻辑回归分析,以确定出血表现的显著预测因素作为比较。
结果:所有三种 ML 模型都一致地确定了 bAVM 大小和患者就诊时的年龄是预测出血表现的两个最重要因素。年龄在多变量逻辑回归中未被确定为出血表现的显著预测因素。梯度提升决策树/AdaBoost 和随机森林模型分别确定了 bAVM 位置和并发动脉动脉瘤为第三重要因素。最后,逻辑回归确定了左侧 bAVM、较小的 bAVM 大小和并发动脉动脉瘤的存在是出血表现的显著危险因素。
结论:通过使用 ML 方法,作者发现了使用传统回归方法无法识别的出血表现的预测因素。
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