Ha Le Thanh, Nham Nguyen Thi Hong
National Economics University, Viet Nam.
University of Economics Ho Chi Minh City, Viet Nam.
Technol Forecast Soc Change. 2022 Oct;183:121909. doi: 10.1016/j.techfore.2022.121909. Epub 2022 Jul 26.
We employ a time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) in combination with an extended joint connectedness approach to study interlinkages between four markets, namely the crude oil, gold, stock, and cryptocurrency markets, by characterizing the connectedness of these four markets, from January 1, 2018, to August 1, 2021. Our results demonstrate that health shocks appear to influence the system-wide dynamic connectedness, which reaches a peak during the COVID-19 pandemic. Net total directional connectedness suggests that the gold and stock markets consistently appear to be net receivers of spillover shocks. Crude oil appears to be a critical net transmitter of shocks for almost the whole pre-COVID-19 pandemic period, but it turns into an important net receiver during the COVID-19 pandemic. The cryptocurrency market acts as the time-varying net receiver and net transmitter of our network, and it has the most inconsiderable role within our studied network. Pairwise connectedness reveals that crude oil and stock are mostly receiving spillover effects from all the other markets, while gold could be either a net transmitter or a net receiver, depending on the types of market considered. Cryptocurrency is a volatile market, and its role varies constantly over time.
我们采用时变参数向量自回归(TVP-VAR)方法,并结合扩展的联合连通性方法,通过刻画2018年1月1日至2021年8月1日期间原油、黄金、股票和加密货币这四个市场之间的连通性,来研究它们之间的相互联系。我们的研究结果表明,健康冲击似乎会影响全系统的动态连通性,这种连通性在新冠疫情期间达到峰值。净总方向性连通性表明,黄金市场和股票市场一直似乎是溢出冲击的净接受者。在新冠疫情之前的几乎整个时期,原油似乎都是冲击的关键净传递者,但在新冠疫情期间它变成了重要的净接受者。加密货币市场在我们的网络中充当随时间变化的净接受者和净传递者,并且在我们所研究的网络中作用最不显著。成对连通性显示,原油和股票大多受到所有其他市场的溢出效应影响,而黄金可能是净传递者也可能是净接受者,这取决于所考虑的市场类型。加密货币市场波动较大,其作用会随时间不断变化。