Economics Department, Middlebury College, Middlebury, VT, United States of America.
PLoS One. 2022 Aug 3;17(8):e0271670. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0271670. eCollection 2022.
Shorter distance events in track and field are replete with folk tales about which lane assignments on the track are advantageous. Estimating the causal effect of lane assignments on race times is a difficult task as lane assignments are typically non-random. To estimate these effects I exploit a random assignment rule for the first round of races in short distance events. Using twenty years of data from the IAAF world athletic championships and U20 world championships, there is no evidence of lane advantages in the 100m. Contrary to popular belief, the data suggest that outside lanes in the 200m and 400m produce faster race times. In the 800m, which is unique in having a lane break, there is some weak evidence that outside lanes producer slower race times, possibly reflecting the advantage of inside lanes having an established position on the track at the lane break. Given that these results do not support common convictions on lane advantages, they also serve as an interesting case study on false beliefs.
田径短跑项目中充斥着大量关于跑道哪条道次有利的传闻。由于道次分配通常是非随机的,因此估计道次分配对比赛成绩的因果效应是一项艰巨的任务。为了估计这些影响,我利用短跑比赛第一轮的随机分配规则。利用国际田联世界田径锦标赛和 U20 世界锦标赛 20 年的数据,在 100 米比赛中没有发现道次优势的证据。与普遍看法相反,数据表明 200 米和 400 米的外道产生更快的比赛成绩。在 800 米比赛中,由于有分道跑规则,有一些微弱的证据表明外道产生较慢的比赛成绩,这可能反映了在分道跑时内道在跑道上的位置优势。考虑到这些结果不支持关于道次优势的普遍看法,它们也为错误信念提供了一个有趣的案例研究。