Increasing seroprevalence but waning herd immunity against measles after elimination: Longitudinal seroepidemiology of measles in Osaka Prefecture, Japan, 2003-2020.

Japan is one of the countries conducting longitudinal serosurveillance of vaccine-preventable diseases. We conducted surveillance of the local measles-specific antibody titer, calculated the effective reproduction number (R), and compared data of four terms: term 1, 2003-2006 (before the introduction of the second shot of measles-containing vaccine); term 2, 2007-2010 (early term toward measles elimination); term 3, 2011-2014 (later term toward measles elimination); and term 4, 2015-2020 (after elimination of measles in Japan). Approximately 250 sera from volunteers aged 0 to ≥ 40 years were collected and examined for measles-specific IgG using the gelatin particle agglutination (PA) method annually from 2003 to 2020. Seroprevalence and the geometric mean of the PA antibody titer were examined by term. R was calculated using the age-dependent proportion immune and contact matrix for each term. Of the 4,716 sera, 886 in term 1, 1,217 in term 2, 1,069 in term 3, and 1,544 in term 4 were collected. The seroprevalence gradually increased from term 1 (88.3% CI 86.0-90.3) to term 4 (95.7% CI 94.6-96.7), and the seroprevalence of term 1 was significantly lower than those of other terms (Fisher's exact test, p < 0.001), with PA titer ≥ 16 as positive. By contrast, PA antibody titers significantly decreased from term 1 (median 1,024) to term 4 (median 256) (Mann-Whitney U test, p < 0.001). With the protection level (PA titer ≥ 128 and ≥ 256) as positive, R gradually increased from term 1 (1.8 and 2.3) to term 4 (2.5 and 4.8, respectively). Waning levels of measles antibodies potentially increase the measles susceptibility in Osaka, Japan. This trend might imply a limitation of vaccine-induced immunity in the absence of a natural booster for wild strains after measles elimination. This study provides a cue for maintaining continuous measles elimination status in the future.