Modelling hydrological strength and alteration in moribund deltaic India.

The Ganga-Brahmaputra moribund deltaic floodplain region hosted many socio-ecologically precious freshwater wetland ecosystems experiencing hydrological alteration. The present study aimed to model hydrological strength (HS) to show the spatial difference and account for the degree and direction of hydrological alteration of Indian moribund deltaic wetland in three phases e.g. (1) phase I (1988-1997), (2) phase II (1998-2007) and phase III (2008-2017). Three key hydrological parameters, such as Water Presence Frequency (WPF), water depth, and hydro-period were considered for hydrological strength modelling using two ensemble Machine Learning (ML) techniques (Random Forest (RF) and XGBoost). Image algebra was employed for phasal change detection. Hydrological strength models show that around 75% of the wetland area was lost in-between phases I to III and the loss was found more intensive in moderate and weak HS zones. Existing wetland shows a clear spatial difference of HS between wetland core and periphery and river linked and delinked or not linked wetlands. Regarding the suitability of the ML models, both are acceptable, however, the XGBoost outperformed in reference to applied 15 statistical validation techniques and field evidence. HS models based on change detection clarified that more than 22% and 55% of the weak HS zone in phases II and III respectively were turned into non-wetland. The degree of alteration revealed that about 40% of wetland areas experienced a negative alteration during phases I to II, and this proportion increased to 63% in between phases II to III. Since the study figured out the spatial nature of HS, degree and direction of alteration at a spatial scale, these findings would be instrumental for adopting rational planning towards wetland conservation and restoration.