Institute of Population Research, Peking University, 100871, Beijing, China.
APEC Health Science Academy (HeSAY), Peking University, Beijing, 100871, China.
Global Health. 2022 Aug 20;18(1):77. doi: 10.1186/s12992-022-00872-y.
At a time when a highly contagious pandemic and global political and economic turmoil are intertwined, worldwide cooperation under the leadership of an international organization has become increasingly important. This study aimed to estimate the effect of COVID-19 on public confidence in the World Health Organization (WHO), which will serve as a reference for other international organizations regarding the maintenance of their credibility in crisis management and ability to play a greater role in global health governance.
We obtained individual data from the World Values Survey (WVS). A total of 44,775 participants aged 16 and older from 40 countries in six WHO regions were included in this study. The COVID-19 pandemic was used as a natural experiment. We obtained difference-in-differences (DID) estimates of the pandemic's effects by exploiting temporal variation in the timing of COVID-19 exposure across participants interviewed from 2017 to 2020 together with the geographical variation in COVID-19 severity at the country level. Public confidence in the WHO was self-reported by the respondents.
Among the participants, 28,087 (62.73%) reported having confidence in the WHO. The DID estimates showed that the COVID-19 pandemic could significantly decrease the likelihood of people reporting confidence in the WHO after controlling for multiple covariates (adjusted OR 0.54, 95% CI: 0.49-0.61), especially during the global outbreak (0.35, 0.24-0.50). The effect was found in both younger individuals (0.58, 0.51-0.66) and older adults (0.49, 0.38-0.63) and in both males (0.47, 0.40-0.55) and females (0.62, 0.53-0.72), with a vulnerability in males (adjusted P for interaction = 0.008).
Our findings are relevant regarding the impact of COVID-19 on people's beliefs about social institutions of global standing, highlighting the need for the WHO and other international organizations to shoulder the responsibility of global development for the establishment and maintenance of public credibility in the face of emergencies, as well as the prevention of confidence crises.
在当前高度传染性的大流行病和全球政治经济动荡相互交织的时期，国际组织领导下的全球合作变得越来越重要。本研究旨在评估 COVID-19 对世界卫生组织（WHO）公众信心的影响，这将为其他国际组织在危机管理中维护其信誉和在全球卫生治理中发挥更大作用提供参考。
我们从世界价值观调查（WVS）中获得了个体数据。这项研究共纳入了来自六个世界卫生组织区域的 40 个国家的 44775 名 16 岁及以上的参与者。COVID-19 大流行被用作自然实验。我们通过利用参与者在 2017 年至 2020 年期间接受采访时 COVID-19 暴露时间的时间变化以及国家层面 COVID-19 严重程度的地理变化，来估计大流行的影响。受访者自我报告了对 WHO 的信心。
在参与者中，有 28087 人（62.73%）报告对 WHO 有信心。DID 估计表明，在控制了多个协变量后，COVID-19 大流行可能会显著降低人们报告对 WHO 信心的可能性（调整后的 OR 0.54，95%CI：0.49-0.61），特别是在全球爆发期间（0.35，0.24-0.50）。这一效应在年轻个体（0.58，0.51-0.66）和老年个体（0.49，0.38-0.63）以及男性（0.47，0.40-0.55）和女性（0.62，0.53-0.72）中均有发现，男性较为脆弱（调整后的交互作用 P 值=0.008）。
我们的发现与 COVID-19 对人们对具有全球影响力的社会机构的信仰的影响有关，这凸显了世界卫生组织和其他国际组织在面对紧急情况时肩负着全球发展的责任，以及在预防信心危机方面，维护公众信任的责任。
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