Center for Agricultural Water Research in China, China Agricultural University, Beijing 10083, China.
Center for Agricultural Water Research in China, China Agricultural University, Beijing 10083, China; National Observation and Research Station of Oasis Agricultural Ecosystem, Wuwei, Gansu Province 733000, China.
Sci Total Environ. 2022 Dec 10;851(Pt 2):158228. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.158228. Epub 2022 Aug 23.
Agricultural and ecological developments are increasingly paid attention in light of climate change. It is expected to comprehensively macroscopically control agricultural and ecological developments in shallow groundwater area that ecology is closely related to agricultural development. This study synthesizes multi models, including process-based crop growth model, water status model of shelterbelt, and vegetation-soil-groundwater interactions to identify responses of crops, shelterbelt, and natural vegetation to different level droughts. Obtained results show that the rank of vulnerabilities to droughts is: maize (the most vulnerable crop) > wheat > sunflower > shelterbelt (the least vulnerable vegetation). Under three drought scenarios, the natural vegetation biomass is all in stable states that fluctuations of groundwater salinity and precipitation cannot largely change the natural vegetation biomass. The natural vegetation biomass in equilibrium states is decreased by 4.08 % and 9.19 % respectively when available irrigation water is reduced to 70 % and 50 % levels. The results indicate that controlling and decreasing initial soil salt content before crop growth may be an effective way to avoid the decrease in the yield loss caused by salinization. It is suggested that vulnerable crops and the possible evolution of natural vegetation towards degradation in extreme droughts should be concerned and taken certain measures. This study also implies that optimizing planting structure is a possible strategy to improve adaptabilities to droughts and decrease economic losses. The established model contributes to provide an effective approach to handle large-scale decision-making problems about comprehensively developing agriculture and ecology in changing environments. Obtained results can provide reference strategies for managers to achieve sustainable development.
气候变化背景下，农业和生态发展受到越来越多的关注。预计将综合宏观控制与农业发展密切相关的浅层地下水地区的农业和生态发展。本研究综合了多种模型，包括基于过程的作物生长模型、防护林带水分状况模型和植被-土壤-地下水相互作用模型，以确定作物、防护林带和自然植被对不同程度干旱的响应。研究结果表明，对干旱的脆弱性等级为：玉米（最脆弱的作物）>小麦>向日葵>防护林带（最不脆弱的植被）。在三种干旱情景下，自然植被生物量均处于稳定状态，地下水矿化度和降水的波动不会显著改变自然植被生物量。当可利用灌溉水减少到 70%和 50%水平时，自然植被在平衡状态下的生物量分别减少了 4.08%和 9.19%。研究结果表明，在作物生长前控制和降低初始土壤盐分含量可能是避免因盐渍化导致产量损失的有效方法。建议关注脆弱作物和自然植被在极端干旱条件下可能退化的问题，并采取相应措施。本研究还表明，优化种植结构是提高抗旱能力和减少经济损失的一种可行策略。所建立的模型有助于为处理变化环境中农业和生态综合发展的大规模决策问题提供有效途径。研究结果可为管理者实现可持续发展提供参考策略。
