Peacock Stephanie J, Kutz Susan J, Hoar Bryanne M, Molnár Péter K
Department of Ecosystem and Public Health, University of Calgary, 3280 Hospital Drive NW, Calgary, AB Canada, T2N 4Z6.
Department of Biological Sciences, University of Toronto Scarborough, 1265 Military Trail, Toronto, ON Canada, M1C 1A4.
R Soc Open Sci. 2022 Aug 24;9(8):220060. doi: 10.1098/rsos.220060. eCollection 2022 Aug.
Climate change is affecting Arctic ecosystems, including parasites. Predicting outcomes for host-parasite systems is challenging due to the complexity of multi-species interactions and the numerous, interacting pathways by which climate change can alter dynamics. Increasing temperatures may lead to faster development of free-living parasite stages but also higher mortality. Interactions between behavioural plasticity of hosts and parasites will also influence transmission processes. We combined laboratory experiments and population modelling to understand the impacts of changing temperatures on barren-ground caribou () and their common helminth (). We experimentally determined the thermal performance curves for mortality and development of free-living parasite stages and applied them in a spatial host-parasite model that also included behaviour of the parasite (propensity for arrested development in the host) and host (long-distance migration). Sensitivity analyses showed that thermal responses had less of an impact on simulated parasite burdens than expected, and the effect differed depending on parasite behaviour. The propensity for arrested development and host migration led to distinct spatio-temporal patterns in infection. These results emphasize the importance of considering behaviour-and behavioural plasticity-when projecting climate-change impacts on host-parasite systems.
气候变化正在影响北极生态系统，包括寄生虫。由于多物种相互作用的复杂性以及气候变化改变动态的众多相互作用途径，预测宿主 - 寄生虫系统的结果具有挑战性。气温升高可能导致自由生活的寄生虫阶段发育加快，但也会导致更高的死亡率。宿主和寄生虫行为可塑性之间的相互作用也将影响传播过程。我们结合实验室实验和种群建模，以了解温度变化对荒地驯鹿（）及其常见蠕虫（）的影响。我们通过实验确定了自由生活寄生虫阶段死亡率和发育的热性能曲线，并将其应用于空间宿主 - 寄生虫模型中，该模型还包括寄生虫的行为（在宿主体内发育停滞的倾向）和宿主的行为（长距离迁徙）。敏感性分析表明，热反应对模拟的寄生虫负荷的影响比预期的要小，并且这种影响因寄生虫行为而异。发育停滞的倾向和宿主迁徙导致感染呈现出独特的时空模式。这些结果强调了在预测气候变化对宿主 - 寄生虫系统的影响时考虑行为及行为可塑性的重要性。
