Lagakos S W, Mosteller F
Risk Anal. 1986 Sep;6(3):345-57. doi: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.1986.tb00227.x.
At the request of Congress, a Working Group of the National Institutes of Health prepared radioepidemiologic tables which estimate the likelihood that cancer victims previously exposed to a dose of radiation developed their cancer as a result of this exposure. The ultimate purpose of the tables is to provide a scientific basis for determining compensation for such victims, and their use would represent a marked departure from the current tort system for deciding compensation. The preparation of radioepidemiologic tables requires extensive mathematical modeling because matters such as sex, size of dose, age at exposure, type of cancer, and age at diagnosis must be taken into account. The limited data require many assumptions about the quantitative relationship between radiation dose and the age-specific incidence rate of cancer. After partitioning a population into reference sets based on age at exposure, size of dose, type of cancer, etc., an assigned share is computed for each reference set and then assigned to all of its members. The assigned share represents the fraction of the cancer cases in the reference set that are attributed to the radiation dose. Because the population can be partitioned in many ways, each individual's assigned share depends on the partition used and will change with different partitions. Options for modeling and limitations in epidemiologic data lead to considerable uncertainties in estimates of assigned shares that have been scientifically evaluated for the Working Group's tables. In contrast, the uncertainties associated with the current approach for determining the likelihood that a claimant's cancer was caused by radiation have not been appraised, but are likely to be even greater than those associated with the Working Group's tables. One issue is how to use such tables to compensate victims. Some among many possibilities are: to use them together with a compensation formula to determine the fraction of a standard award to be given; to use them as a starting value for the fraction, to be modified by an authority on the basis of additional information supplied by the claimant and defendant; and to use them as input to the present compensation system.
应国会要求，美国国立卫生研究院的一个工作组编制了放射性流行病学表，用以估计曾遭受一定剂量辐射的癌症患者因这种辐射而患上癌症的可能性。这些表格的最终目的是为确定此类受害者的赔偿提供科学依据，其使用将标志着与现行确定赔偿的侵权制度有显著不同。编制放射性流行病学表需要进行广泛的数学建模，因为必须考虑诸如性别、剂量大小、受照年龄、癌症类型以及确诊年龄等因素。有限的数据需要对辐射剂量与特定年龄癌症发病率之间的定量关系做出许多假设。在根据受照年龄、剂量大小、癌症类型等将人群划分为参考组之后，为每个参考组计算一个分配份额，然后将其分配给该组的所有成员。分配份额代表参考组中归因于辐射剂量的癌症病例所占比例。由于人群可以有多种划分方式，所以每个人的分配份额取决于所使用的划分方式，并且会随着不同的划分而变化。建模选项和流行病学数据的局限性导致在工作组表格中经过科学评估的分配份额估计值存在相当大的不确定性。相比之下，当前确定索赔人癌症是否由辐射引起的方法所涉及的不确定性尚未得到评估，但可能比与工作组表格相关的不确定性更大。一个问题是如何使用这些表格来赔偿受害者。众多可能性中的一些包括：将它们与赔偿公式一起使用，以确定应给予的标准赔偿的比例；将它们用作该比例的起始值，由权威机构根据索赔人和被告提供的额外信息进行修改；以及将它们用作现行赔偿系统的输入。
