The Impact of Biopharmaceutical Innovation on Disability, Social Security Recipiency, and Use of Medical Care of U.S. Community Residents, 1998-2015.

This study seeks to analyze the overall impact that biopharmaceutical innovation had on disability, Social Security recipiency, and the use of medical services of U.S. community residents during the period 1998-2015. We test the hypothesis that the probability of disability, Social Security recipiency, and medical care utilization associated with a medical condition is inversely related to the number of drug classes previously approved for that condition. We use data from the 1998-2015 waves of the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey and other sources to estimate probit models of an individual's probability of disability, Social Security recipiency, and medical care utilization. The effect of biopharmaceutical innovation is identified by differences across over 200 medical conditions in the growth in the lagged number of drug classes ever approved. 18 years of previous biopharmaceutical innovation is estimated to have reduced: the number of people who were completely unable to work at a job, do housework, or go to school in 2015 by 4.5%; the number of people with cognitive limitations by 3.2%; the number of people receiving SSI in 2015 by 247 thousand (3.1%); and the number of people receiving Social Security by 984 thousand (2.0%). Previous innovation is also estimated to have caused reductions in home health visits (9.2%), inpatient events (5.7%), missed school days (5.1%), and outpatient events (4.1%). The estimated value in 2015 of some of the reductions in disability, Social Security recipiency, and use of medical care attributable to previous biopharmaceutical innovation ($115 billion) is fairly close to 2015 expenditure on drug classes that were first approved by the FDA during 1989-2006 ($127 billion). However, for a number of reasons, the costs are likely to be lower, and the benefits are likely to be larger, than these figures.