Shropshire Taylor A, Morey Steven L, Chassignet Eric P, Karnauskas Mandy, Coles Victoria J, Malca Estrella, Laiz-Carrión Raúl, Fiksen Øyvind, Reglero Patricia, Shiroza Akihiro, Quintanilla Hervas José M, Gerard Trika, Lamkin John T, Stukel Michael R
EARTH, OCEAN AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE, FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY, TALLAHASSEE, FL 32306, USA.
CENTER FOR OCEAN-ATMOSPHERIC PREDICTION STUDIES, FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY, TALLAHASSEE, FL 32306, USA.
J Plankton Res. 2021 Jun 22;44(5):782-798. doi: 10.1093/plankt/fbab041. eCollection 2022 Sep-Oct.
Atlantic bluefin tuna (ABT) () travel long distances to spawn in oligotrophic regions of the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) which suggests these regions offer some unique benefit to offspring survival. To better understand how larval survival varies within the GoM a spatially explicit, Lagrangian, individual-based model was developed that simulates dispersal and mortality of ABT early life stages within realistic predator and prey fields during the spawning periods from 1993 to 2012. The model estimates that starvation is the largest cumulative source of mortality associated with an early critical period. However, elevated predation on older larvae is identified as the main factor limiting survival to late postflexion. As a result, first-feeding larvae have higher survival on the shelf where food is abundant, whereas older larvae have higher survival in the open ocean with fewer predators, making the shelf break an optimal spawning area. The modeling framework developed in this study explicitly simulates both physical and biological factors that impact larval survival and hence could be used to support ecosystem based management efforts for ABT under current and future climate conditions.
大西洋蓝鳍金枪鱼（ABT）会长途迁徙至墨西哥湾（GoM）的贫营养区域产卵，这表明这些区域为幼鱼生存提供了一些独特的益处。为了更好地了解墨西哥湾内幼鱼的生存情况如何变化，我们开发了一个空间明确的、基于拉格朗日个体的模型，该模型模拟了1993年至2012年产卵期内ABT早期生命阶段在实际的捕食者和猎物环境中的扩散和死亡率。该模型估计，饥饿是与早期关键时期相关的最大累积死亡来源。然而，对较大幼鱼的捕食增加被确定为限制存活至后弯曲后期的主要因素。因此，初次摄食的幼鱼在食物丰富的陆架上有更高的存活率，而较大的幼鱼在捕食者较少的开阔海洋中有更高的存活率，这使得陆架断裂带成为一个最佳产卵区域。本研究中开发的建模框架明确模拟了影响幼鱼生存的物理和生物因素，因此可用于支持当前和未来气候条件下基于生态系统的ABT管理工作。
