Special Interest Group On Modelling & Data Analytics, Universiti Malaysia Terengganu, 21030, Kuala Nerus, Terengganu, Malaysia.
Hist Philos Life Sci. 2022 Sep 1;44(3):41. doi: 10.1007/s40656-022-00522-x.
In the fight against COVID-19 pandemic, the phrase "Flattening the curve" (FTC) has become a rallying cry, popularized by government leaders and journalist in the news and on the social media. FTC is a succinct way of communicating an important public health message that physical distancing, mask-wearing and other public health measures will decrease the peak number of cases and prevent the healthcare system from being overwhelmed. However, while the message of FTC is right in the sense that limiting transmission will reduce the peak number of cases, some visualizations used to illustrate its effect are incorrect from an infectious disease modelling point of view. The misconceptions are misinterpretations of flattened curves, the effect of FTC on the duration of the pandemic, the dynamics of the curve to be flattened, and the overestimation of the importance of FTC.
在抗击 COVID-19 大流行的过程中,“曲线变平”(Flattening the Curve, FTC)这一短语已成为一个口号,在新闻界和社交媒体上,政府领导人和记者都在广泛使用这一口号。FTC 是一种简洁的方式,可以传达一个重要的公共卫生信息,即身体距离、戴口罩和其他公共卫生措施将减少病例的峰值,并防止医疗保健系统不堪重负。然而,尽管 FTC 的信息是正确的,即限制传播将减少病例的峰值,但一些用于说明其效果的可视化效果从传染病模型的角度来看是不正确的。这些误解是对变平曲线的误解、FTC 对大流行持续时间的影响、要变平的曲线的动态以及 FTC 重要性的高估。