Flores-Medina Pedro Walter, Sepp-Neves Antonio Augusto, Coppini Giovanni, Morales-Caselles Carmen
Faculty of Marine and Environmental Sciences, University of Cadiz, Cadiz, Spain.
Ocean Predictions and Applications Division, Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Bologna, Italy.
Sci Total Environ. 2022 Dec 15;852:158356. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.158356. Epub 2022 Aug 29.
Major oil spills can cause significant impacts on marine-coastal zones, particularly on areas with a high oil spill risk, which combine a high oil spill hazard-high likelihood of oil stranding at high concentrations, and a high environmental sensitivity-high concentration of highly sensitive ecological and socioeconomic resources. In this context, a straightforward multicriteria methodology is proposed to determine the second factor of the oil spill risk, namely the strategic environmental sensitivity (SES), in 68 sectors covering the entire Peruvian marine-coastal zone. The methodology comprised the weighted integration of physical, biological, and socioeconomic sensitivity indicators based on their relevance in surface marine oil spills and the Peruvian ecological and socioeconomic context. As a result, relative SES levels from very low to very high were assigned to the sectors. To demonstrate the SES applicability, an oil spill risk assessment at a screening level was performed in a selected sector with current oil production activities. The oil beaching likelihood of worst-case discharge scenarios modelled for January 2021 was used to determine an overall screening oil spill hazard level in the selected sector, while a matrix relating the SES and hazard determined the screening oil spill risk. The results can be used as a decision-support tool to enhance the oil spill contingency planning in Peru or be used in other relevant processes such as the integrated coastal zone management, the marine spatial planning, or the contingency planning of other liquid contaminants. In addition, the proposed methodologies can be adapted to different local and international contexts and scales.
重大石油泄漏会对海洋沿岸地区造成重大影响，尤其是在石油泄漏风险较高的区域，这些区域兼具高石油泄漏危害——高浓度石油搁浅的可能性大，以及高环境敏感性——高浓度的高敏感生态和社会经济资源。在此背景下，本文提出了一种直接的多标准方法，用于确定秘鲁整个海洋沿岸地区68个部门的石油泄漏风险的第二个因素，即战略环境敏感性（SES）。该方法基于物理、生物和社会经济敏感性指标在海洋表面石油泄漏及秘鲁生态和社会经济背景中的相关性进行加权整合。结果，各部门被赋予了从极低到极高的相对SES水平。为证明SES的适用性，在一个有当前石油生产活动的选定部门进行了筛选级别的石油泄漏风险评估。利用为2021年1月模拟的最坏情况排放情景下的石油搁浅可能性，确定选定部门的总体筛选石油泄漏危害水平，而一个将SES与危害相关联的矩阵则确定筛选石油泄漏风险。这些结果可作为决策支持工具，以加强秘鲁的石油泄漏应急计划，或用于其他相关过程，如综合海岸带管理、海洋空间规划或其他液体污染物的应急计划。此外，所提出的方法可适用于不同的本地和国际背景及规模。
