Quantitative assessment of the risk of human activities on landscape fragmentation: A case study of Northeast China Tiger and Leopard National Park.

Risk assessment of human activities on landscape fragmentation in nature reserves can effectively balance the conflict between wildlife conservation and human development. However, previous studies had been unable to quantitatively assess the risk of human activities on landscape fragmentation. Thus, we constructed a risk assessment methodology to quantitatively assess the risk of different human activities on the Landscape Fragmentation Composite Index (LFCI) in the Northeast China Tiger and Leopard National Park (NCTLNP). First, we fitted the relationship curve between LFCI and different human activity factors based on the Generalized Additive Model (GAM) to determine the impact patterns of each factor on LFCI. Secondly, we identified impact risk areas of each human activity factor on LFCI by the location of threshold points in the curve and analyzed their spatiotemporal variation characteristics from 2015 to 2020. The results show that the relationship between LFCI and Land Use Intensity (LUI) showed an inverted "U" shape, the relationship with Population Density (POPD) showed a "rising-flat-rising" trend, and the relationship with Traffic Accessibility (TA) and Industrial and Mining Activity (IMA) showed a positive correlation after a flat interval. In addition, we found that the LUI and IMA impact risk areas were widely distributed and remained stable for five years. But the POPD impact risk area was mainly distributed around settlements and expanded by 6.6 % from 2015 to 2020. The TA impact risk area was distributed in strips and expanded by 16.38 % from 2015 to 2017 due to the construction of the G331 national road. And the joint impact risk area of these four factors expanded by 1.55 times in five years. Our research can provide a reference for ecological risk assessment under the impact of human activities on other nature reserves in the world.