Jia Huicong, Chen Fang, Zhang Chuanrong, Dong Jinwei, Du Enyu, Wang Lei
International Research Center of Big Data for Sustainable Development Goals, Beijing 100094, China; Key Laboratory of Digital Earth Science, Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100094, China.
International Research Center of Big Data for Sustainable Development Goals, Beijing 100094, China; Key Laboratory of Digital Earth Science, Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100094, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China.
Sci Total Environ. 2022 Dec 15;852:158474. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.158474. Epub 2022 Sep 1.
Drought events have considerable direct and indirect economic, environmental, and social impacts, but few studies have analyzed and assessed future changes in drought disasters from a risk perspective to guide responses and adaptations thoroughly. Studying the potential climate-related impacts on future crop yield is therefore urgently needed. Intercomparison of the three Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP) scenarios based drought risks and yield loss of China was carried out using the climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), and the hotspots of high drought risk regions were identified. This study found that the areas affected by severe maize drought (loss ratio larger than 0.2) accounted for 16.13 %, 20.79 %, and 18.87 % of the total national corn areas under three low, medium-to-high and high emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5) respectively. The northwest China maize region, the ecotone between agriculture and animal husbandry, and the western central northern China maize region have relatively high loss risk. Compared with SSP1-2.6, the yield loss rates increased with 70.73 % and 61.52 % of national corn areas for SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5, respectively. There is a decrease in the areas with low-risk and a significant increase in the areas with high-risk for SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 compared to the SSP1-2.6. These results may provide theoretical support for agricultural drought risk reduction and adaptation planning to ensure food security under climate change.
干旱事件具有相当大的直接和间接经济、环境及社会影响，但很少有研究从风险角度分析和评估未来干旱灾害的变化，以全面指导应对措施和适应行动。因此，迫切需要研究与气候相关的因素对未来作物产量的潜在影响。利用耦合模式比较计划第6阶段（CMIP6）的气候模型，对基于三种共享社会经济路径（SSP）情景的中国干旱风险和产量损失进行了对比，并确定了高干旱风险地区的热点区域。本研究发现，在三种低、中高和高排放情景（SSP1-2.6、SSP3-7.0、SSP5-8.5）下，受严重玉米干旱影响的面积（损失率大于0.2）分别占全国玉米总面积的16.13%、20.79%和18.87%。中国西北玉米产区、农牧交错带以及中国中部偏北玉米产区的损失风险相对较高。与SSP1-2.6相比，SSP3-7.0和SSP5-8.5情景下全国玉米面积的产量损失率分别增加了70.73%和61.52%。与SSP1-2.6相比，SSP3-7.0和SSP5-8.5情景下低风险地区面积减少，高风险地区面积显著增加。这些结果可为减少农业干旱风险和适应规划提供理论支持，以确保气候变化下的粮食安全。
