Department of Gastroenterology, Sendai Kousei Hospital, Sendai, Japan.
Department of Radiation Health Management, Fukushima Medical University School of Medicine, Fukushima, Japan.
Asian J Endosc Surg. 2023 Jan;16(1):58-67. doi: 10.1111/ases.13123. Epub 2022 Sep 4.
In early 2020, the Japanese government declared a nationwide state of emergency for the COVID-19 pandemic. We investigated the impact of the emergency declaration on endoscopy adherence and conducted a follow-up study of patients with canceled examinations at a tertiary endoscopy facility in Japan in 2020.
We compared the number of endoscopies performed, and cancelations at the endoscopy unit between 2019 and 2020 and used the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) model to estimate the decrease in the number of endoscopies in 2020. We administered a questionnaire to those who had not undergone a scheduled endoscopy.
Of 14 146 and 13 338 scheduled examinations, 1233 (8.7%) and 1403 (10.5%) were canceled in 2019 and 2020, respectively. During both years, age < 50 years, age > 80 years, upper endoscopy, and experience of endoscopy in the past 5 years were significantly associated with cancelations. In 2020, cancelations in the 14th-26th week of the year, including the period of state of emergency, increased significantly, and more women canceled. Of the 409 questionnaire-respondents, 174 (42.5%) indicated that COVID-19 had influenced their cancelation, and 315 (77.0%) had not undergone similar endoscopic examinations since then. The BSTS model predicted a decrease of 957 (95% CI -1213 to -708, P = .003) examinations.
In 2020, despite low numbers of COVID-19 cases in the study site, the number of endoscopies decreased, and cancelation increased. Further research is needed on the future impact of a decrease in the number of endoscopies during a COVID-19 pandemic.
2020 年初,日本政府宣布 COVID-19 大流行进入全国紧急状态。我们调查了紧急声明对内镜检查依从性的影响,并在日本一家三级内镜机构对 2020 年取消检查的患者进行了随访研究。
我们比较了 2019 年和 2020 年内镜单位进行的内镜检查数量和取消数量,并使用贝叶斯结构时间序列(BSTS)模型估计 2020 年内镜检查数量的减少。我们向未接受预定内镜检查的患者发放了问卷。
在 14038 次和 13338 次预约检查中,分别有 1233 次(8.7%)和 1403 次(10.5%)在 2019 年和 2020 年取消。在这两年中,年龄<50 岁、年龄>80 岁、上消化道内镜检查和过去 5 年的内镜检查经验与取消显著相关。2020 年,包括紧急状态期间在内的第 14 周至第 26 周的取消量显著增加,且女性取消者更多。在 409 名回答问卷的患者中,174 名(42.5%)表示 COVID-19 影响了他们的取消,且自那以后,315 名(77.0%)未接受类似的内镜检查。BSTS 模型预测检查数量减少 957 次(95%CI-1213 至-708,P=.003)。
尽管研究地点 COVID-19 病例数量较少,但 2020 年的内镜检查数量减少,取消数量增加。需要进一步研究 COVID-19 大流行期间内镜检查数量减少对未来的影响。