Hediger M L, Stine R A
Ann Hum Biol. 1987 Mar-Apr;14(2):133-42. doi: 10.1080/03014468700006862.
Censored likelihood methods which use recalled dates yield accurate estimates of the age at menarche in an urban population of black adolescent girls. The mean age at menarche is 12.44 (SE 0.08) years for a sample of 272 black adolescents in Philadelphia, PA. The methodology we describe is more efficient than logit or probit methods, which are not designed to utilize recall information. Alternative methods which use recall are biased if subject memory is influenced by length of time since menarche. Our methods also provide information on the nature of subject recall that may be useful in further analysis.
使用回忆日期的删失似然方法能够准确估计城市黑人少女群体的初潮年龄。对于宾夕法尼亚州费城272名黑人青少年的样本，初潮平均年龄为12.44（标准误0.08）岁。我们所描述的方法比逻辑回归或概率单位方法更有效，后两种方法并非设计用于利用回忆信息。如果受试者的记忆受到初潮后时间长度的影响，那么使用回忆的其他方法会产生偏差。我们的方法还提供了关于受试者回忆性质的信息，这可能对进一步分析有用。
