Department for Psychology and Psychotherapy, Witten/Herdecke University, Alfred Herrhausen-Straße 50, 58448 Witten, Germany.
Trimberg Research Academy, University of Bamberg, An der Weberei 5, 96047 Bamberg, Germany.
Stud Health Technol Inform. 2022 Aug 17;296:9-16. doi: 10.3233/SHTI220798.
Verbal probabilities such as "likely" or "probable" are commonly used to describe situations of uncertainty or risk and are easy and natural to most people. Numerous studies are devoted to the translation of verbal probability expressions to numerical probabilities.
The present work aims to summarize existing research on the numerical interpretation of verbal probabilities. This was accomplished by means of a systematic literature review and meta-analysis conducted alongside the MOOSE-guidelines for meta-analysis of observational studies in epidemiology. Studies were included, if they provided empirical assignments of verbal probabilities to numerical values.
The literature search identified 181 publications and finally led to 21 included articles and the procession of 35 verbal probability expressions. Sample size of the studies ranged from 11 to 683 participants and covered a period of half a century from 1967 to 2018. In half of the studies, verbal probabilities were delivered in a neutral context followed by a medical context. Mean values of the verbal probabilities range from 7.24% for the term "impossible" up to 94.79% for the term "definite".
According to the results, there is a common 'across-study' consensus of 35 probability expressions for describing different degrees of probability, whose numerical interpretation follows a linear course. However, heterogeneity of studies was considerably high and should be considered as a limiting factor.
“可能”或“很可能”等口头概率常用于描述不确定或有风险的情况，对大多数人来说很容易且自然。许多研究都致力于将口头概率表达转换为数字概率。
本研究旨在总结目前口头概率数值解释的研究。这是通过系统文献综述和荟萃分析来实现的，同时遵循 MOOSE 指南进行流行病学观察研究的荟萃分析。如果提供了口头概率到数值的经验赋值，则纳入研究。
文献检索确定了 181 篇出版物，最终纳入了 21 篇文章和 35 个口头概率表达式。研究的样本量范围从 11 到 683 名参与者，涵盖了从 1967 年到 2018 年的半个世纪。在一半的研究中，口头概率是在中性语境下提出的，然后是医学语境。口头概率的平均值从术语“不可能”的 7.24%到术语“确定”的 94.79%不等。
根据结果，有一个共同的“跨研究”共识，即 35 个概率表达式用于描述不同程度的概率，其数值解释遵循线性过程。然而，研究的异质性相当高，应该被视为一个限制因素。
