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关于与快速增强相关的热带气旋降水总量和空间范围的全球变化的研究。

Examinations on global changes in the total and spatial extent of tropical cyclone precipitation relating to rapid intensification.

机构信息

Center of Water Resources and Environment, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, 510275, PR China; Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai), Zhuhai 519082, PR China; School of Civil Engineering, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, 510275, PR China.

Center of Water Resources and Environment, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, 510275, PR China; School of Civil Engineering, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, 510275, PR China.

出版信息

Sci Total Environ. 2022 Dec 20;853:158555. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.158555. Epub 2022 Sep 6.

Abstract

Moderate tropical cyclone precipitation (TCP) is of great significance to regional water resource supply, while extreme TCP could bring significant adverse impacts to ecosystems and society, especially when tropical cyclones intensify rapidly, leaving no time to take prevention actions. Whether rapid intensification (RI) of tropical cyclones (TCs) affect TCP in both land and ocean remains unknown. Here we classified TCs which have undergone increases in the maximum sustained wind speed (MSW) by at least 30 knots within 24-h into RI category. We analyzed TCP totals provided by daily precipitation from Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks-Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CDR) and spatial extent from 1983 to 2019 in the four categories based on regions (land and ocean) and RI-experiencing characteristics (with- and without-RI). TCP totals and spatial extent was identified by the restricted moving neighborhood method and semi-variogram framework. The results show that TCP totals on the ocean are larger than those on the land, since RI-experiencing TCP are higher than TCP without RI-experiencing, although RI processes tend to increase TCP totals in the extremely high percentiles more significantly on land than ocean. The effects of RI processes on global TCP spatial extent are not statistically significant, and there are no definite relations between MSW and TCP spatial extent. The four regions of the Northeast Pacific Ocean (EP), South Pacific Ocean (SP), Northwest Pacific Ocean (WP), and North Atlantic Ocean (NA) show increases in regional mean and extreme TCP totals. The highest increase in the extreme TCP totals (0.37 mm day year) over the NA region occurs in the RI_ocean category, which is 2.6 times the average positive enhancement trend across all basins. The increasing rate of the extreme TCP totals over the WP region is higher in track points with RI-experiencing than without RI-experiencing. The category of RI_land over the regions of NA, EP and SP shows a significant increase in the regional mean TCP spatial extent.

摘要

中度热带气旋降水(TCP)对区域水资源供应具有重要意义,而极端 TCP 可能会给生态系统和社会带来重大不利影响,尤其是当热带气旋迅速加强,没有时间采取预防措施时。热带气旋(TC)的快速加强(RI)是否会影响陆地和海洋的 TCP 尚不清楚。在这里,我们将在 24 小时内最大持续风速(MSW)至少增加 30 节的 TC 归类为 RI 类别。我们分析了基于区域(陆地和海洋)和 RI 经历特征(有和无 RI)的四个类别中,1983 年至 2019 年期间,由人工神经网络气候数据记录(PERSIANN-CDR)每日降水提供的 TCP 总量和空间范围。使用受限移动邻域方法和半变异函数框架确定 TCP 总量和空间范围。结果表明,海洋上的 TCP 总量大于陆地上的 TCP 总量,因为 RI 经历的 TCP 总量高于没有 RI 经历的 TCP 总量,尽管 RI 过程往往会使陆地极端百分位的 TCP 总量增加更为显著。RI 过程对全球 TCP 空间范围的影响没有统计学意义,MSW 与 TCP 空间范围之间没有明确的关系。东北太平洋(EP)、南太平洋(SP)、西北太平洋(WP)和北大西洋(NA)的四个区域显示出区域平均和极端 TCP 总量的增加。NA 区域极端 TCP 总量的最高增加(0.37mm 天年)发生在 RI_ocean 类别中,是所有盆地平均正增强趋势的 2.6 倍。WP 区域极端 TCP 总量的增加率在有 RI 经历的航点高于没有 RI 经历的航点。NA、EP 和 SP 区域的 RI_land 类别显示出区域平均 TCP 空间范围的显著增加。

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