Robust group- but limited individual-level (longitudinal) reliability and insights into cross-phases response prediction of conditioned fear.

Here, we follow the call to target measurement reliability as a key prerequisite for individual-level predictions in translational neuroscience by investigating (1) longitudinal reliability at the individual and (2) group level, (3) internal consistency and (4) response predictability across experimental phases. One hundred and twenty individuals performed a fear conditioning paradigm twice 6 months apart. Analyses of skin conductance responses, fear ratings and blood oxygen level dependent functional magnetic resonance imaging (BOLD fMRI) with different data transformations and included numbers of trials were conducted. While longitudinal reliability was rather limited at the individual level, it was comparatively higher for acquisition but not extinction at the group level. Internal consistency was satisfactory. Higher responding in preceding phases predicted higher responding in subsequent experimental phases at a weak to moderate level depending on data specifications. In sum, the results suggest that while individual-level predictions are meaningful for (very) short time frames, they also call for more attention to measurement properties in the field.