Department for Environment Constructions and Design, Vector Ecology Unit, Institute of Microbiology (IM), University of Applied Sciences and Arts of Southern Switzerland (SUPSI), 6850, Mendrisio, Switzerland.
Department of Innovative Technologies, Dalle Molle Institute for Artificial Intelligence Studies (IDSIA), University of Applied Sciences and Arts of Southern Switzerland (SUPSI), 6962, Lugano-Viganello, Switzerland.
Sci Rep. 2022 Sep 24;12(1):15967. doi: 10.1038/s41598-022-20436-9.
The tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus, has adjusted well to urban environments by adopting artificial water containers as oviposition sites. Its spread in temperate regions is favoured by the deposition of cold-tolerant diapausing eggs that survive winter temperatures to a certain degree. The probability of establishment in new geographical areas is estimated using predictive models usually based on meteorological data measured at coarse resolution. Here, we investigated if we could obtain more precise and realistic risk scenarios for the spread of Ae. albopictus when considering the winter microclimatic conditions of catch basins, one of the major sites of oviposition and egg overwintering in temperate urban areas. We monitored winter microclimatic conditions of catch basins in four Swiss cities and developed a regression model to predict the average microclimatic temperatures of catch basins, based on available meteorological parameters, accounting for the observed differences between cities. We then used the microclimatic model to correct the predictions of our previously developed risk model for the prediction of Ae. albopictus establishment. Comparison of the predictive model's results based on local climate data and microclimate data indicated that the risk of establishment for Ae. albopictus in temperate urban areas increases when microhabitat temperatures are considered.
白纹伊蚊已适应城市环境，将人工水容器作为产卵地。其在温带地区的传播得益于耐寒滞育卵的沉积，这些卵在一定程度上能耐受冬季温度。利用通常基于粗分辨率气象数据的预测模型来估计在新地理区域建立的可能性。在这里，我们研究了当考虑到作为卵产和卵越冬主要场所之一的雨水篦子的冬季小气候条件时，是否可以获得更精确和现实的白纹伊蚊传播风险情景。我们监测了瑞士四个城市的雨水篦子冬季小气候条件，并开发了一个回归模型，基于可用气象参数预测雨水篦子的平均小气候温度，同时考虑到城市之间的观测差异。然后，我们使用小气候模型来修正之前开发的风险模型对白纹伊蚊建立的预测。基于当地气候数据和小气候数据的预测模型结果的比较表明，当考虑小气候温度时，白纹伊蚊在温带城市地区建立的风险会增加。
