Department of Surgery, University of Nebraska Medical Center, Omaha, Nebraska.
Division of Trauma, Critical Care, and General Surgery, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, Minnesota.
J Surg Res. 2023 Jan;281:143-154. doi: 10.1016/j.jss.2022.08.004. Epub 2022 Sep 22.
The effects of firearm sales and legislation on crime and violence are intensely debated, with multiple studies yielding differing results. We hypothesized that increased lawful firearm sales would not be associated with the rates of crime and homicide when studied using a robust statistical method.
National and state rates of crime and homicide during 1999-2015 were obtained from the United States Department of Justice and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. National Instant Criminal Background Check System background checks were used as a surrogate for lawful firearm sales. A general multiple linear regression model using log event rates was used to assess the effect of firearm sales on crime and homicide rates. Additional modeling was then performed on a state basis using an autoregressive correlation structure with generalized estimating equation estimates for standard errors to adjust for the interdependence of variables year to year within a particular state.
Nationally, all crime rates except the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention-designated firearm homicides decreased as firearm sales increased over the study period. Using a naive national model, increases in firearm sales were associated with significant decreases in multiple crime categories. However, a more robust analysis using generalized estimating equation estimates on state-level data demonstrated increases in firearms sales were not associated with changes in any crime variables examined.
Robust analysis does not identify an association between increased lawful firearm sales and rates of crime or homicide. Based on this, it is unclear if efforts to limit lawful firearm sales would have any effect on rates of crime, homicide, or injuries from violence committed with firearms.
枪支销售和立法对犯罪和暴力的影响存在激烈争议，多项研究得出了不同的结果。我们假设，使用稳健的统计方法研究时，合法枪支销售的增加与犯罪和凶杀率无关。
从美国司法部和疾病控制与预防中心获得 1999-2015 年期间的全国和州犯罪和凶杀率数据。国家即时犯罪背景检查系统的背景调查被用作合法枪支销售的替代品。使用对数事件率的一般多元线性回归模型来评估枪支销售对犯罪和凶杀率的影响。然后在州一级使用自回归相关结构和广义估计方程估计值进行额外建模，以调整特定州内变量逐年的相关性，以调整标准误差。
全国范围内，除疾病控制与预防中心指定的枪支凶杀案外，所有犯罪率均随着研究期间枪支销售的增加而下降。使用简单的全国模型，枪支销售的增加与多个犯罪类别的显著减少相关。然而，使用州级数据的广义估计方程估计进行更稳健的分析表明，枪支销售的增加与所检查的任何犯罪变量的变化均无关联。
稳健的分析并未确定增加合法枪支销售与犯罪或凶杀率之间的关联。基于此，尚不清楚限制合法枪支销售的努力是否会对犯罪、凶杀或枪支暴力造成的伤害率产生任何影响。
