Paton G, Thomas R J
Vet Parasitol. 1987 May;24(3-4):305-11. doi: 10.1016/0304-4017(87)90053-7.
Incorporating estimated temperature data and assuming non-limiting rainfall, a simulation model was used to compare forecast and actual pasture counts of sheep nematode larvae over a 2-year period. The results indicate that the first possible date of the summer larval rise can be predicted up to 6 weeks in advance of its actual occurrence, enabling control measures to be planned and implemented. Rainfall variation had a marked effect on the degree of disparity between the predicted and actual timing of the rise, indicating the importance of this factor.
结合估计的温度数据并假设降雨无限制，使用一个模拟模型比较了两年期间绵羊线虫幼虫的预测和实际牧场数量。结果表明，夏季幼虫上升的首个可能日期可在实际发生前6周预测出来，从而能够规划和实施控制措施。降雨变化对预测和实际上升时间之间的差异程度有显著影响，表明了这一因素的重要性。
