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[肝内胆管癌腹腔镜肝切除术后长期预后因素分析及生存列线图模型的建立]

[The analysis of long-term prognostic factors after laparoscopic liver resection for intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma and establishment of survival Nomogram model].

作者信息

Shen Z F, Chen C, Geng Z M, Mao X H, Li J D, Song T Q, Sun C D, Wu H, Cheng Z J, Lin R X, He Y, Zhai W L, Tang D, Tang Z H, Liang Xiao

机构信息

Department of General Surgery,Sir Run Run Shaw Hospital,School of Medicine,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou 310000,China.

Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery,the First Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University,Xi'an 710061,China.

出版信息

Zhonghua Wai Ke Za Zhi. 2022 Oct 1;60(10):939-947. doi: 10.3760/cma.j.cn112139-20220413-00163.

Abstract

To establish a survival prediction model based on the independent prognostic factors of long-term prognosis after laparoscopic liver resection(LLR) for intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma(ICC). The clinical and pathological data of 351 consecutive patients with ICC who received radical LLR in 13 Chinese medical centers from August 2010 to May 2021 were collected retrospectively. There were 190 males and 161 females,aged((IQR)) 61(14)years(range:23 to 93 years). The total cohort was randomly divided into a training dataset(264 cases) and a validation dataset(87 cases). The patients were followed up by outpatient service or telephone,and the deadline for follow-up was October 2021. Based on the training dataset,the multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to screen the independent influencing factors of long-term prognosis to construct a Nomogram model. The Nomogram model's discrimination,calibration,and clinical benefit were evaluated through internal and external validation,and an assessment of the overall value of two groups was made through the use of a receiver operating characteristic(ROC) curve. There was no significant difference in clinical and pathological characteristics and long-term survival results between the training and validation datasets(all >0.05). The multivariate Cox analysis showed that CA19-9,CA125,conversion to laparotomy during laparoscopic surgery,and lymph node metastasis were independent prognostic factors for ICC patients after LLR(all <0.05). The survival Nomogram was established based on the independent prognostic factors obtained from the above screening. The ROC curve showed that the area under the curve of 1, 3 and 5-year overall survival rates of patients in the training dataset were 0.794(95%:0.721 to 0.867),0.728(95%:0.618 to 0.839) and 0.799(95%:0.670 to 0.928),and those in the validation dataset were 0.787(95%:0.660 to 0.915),0.831(95%:0.678 to 0.983) and 0.810(95%:0.639 to 0.982). Internal and external validation proved that the model exhibited a certain discrimination,calibration,and clinical applicability. The survival Nomogram model based on the independent influencing factors of long-term prognosis after LLR for ICC(including CA19-9,CA125,conversion to laparotomy during laparoscopic surgery,and lymph node metastasis) exhibites a certain differentiation,calibration,and clinical practicability.

摘要

基于肝内胆管癌(ICC)腹腔镜肝切除术(LLR)后长期预后的独立预后因素建立生存预测模型。回顾性收集2010年8月至2021年5月在13家中国医疗中心接受根治性LLR的351例连续ICC患者的临床和病理资料。其中男性190例,女性161例,年龄(四分位间距)61(14)岁(范围:23至93岁)。将整个队列随机分为训练数据集(264例)和验证数据集(87例)。通过门诊或电话对患者进行随访,随访截止日期为2021年10月。基于训练数据集,采用多因素Cox比例风险回归模型筛选长期预后的独立影响因素,构建列线图模型。通过内部和外部验证评估列线图模型的区分度、校准度和临床获益,并通过绘制受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线对两组的整体价值进行评估。训练数据集和验证数据集在临床病理特征和长期生存结果方面无显著差异(均>0.05)。多因素Cox分析显示,CA19-9、CA125、腹腔镜手术中转开腹以及淋巴结转移是LLR术后ICC患者的独立预后因素(均<0.05)。基于上述筛选得到的独立预后因素建立生存列线图。ROC曲线显示,训练数据集中患者1、3和5年总生存率曲线下面积分别为0.794(95%:0.721至0.867)、0.728(95%:0.618至0.839)和0.799(95%:0.670至0.928),验证数据集中分别为0.787(95%:0.660至0.915)、0.831(95%:0.678至0.983)和0.810(95%:0.639至0.982)。内部和外部验证证明该模型具有一定的区分度、校准度和临床适用性。基于ICC的LLR后长期预后独立影响因素(包括CA19-9、CA125、腹腔镜手术中转开腹以及淋巴结转移)的生存列线图模型具有一定的区分度、校准度和临床实用性。

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