Novel nomogram model for predicting 6-week mortality in liver cirrhosis patients with acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding.

OBJECTIVE

To develop and validate a nomogram for predicting 6-week mortality in patients with liver cirrhosis and acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) and to compare it with other commonly used scoring systems.

METHODS

This retrospective study included cirrhotic patients with acute UGIB hospitalized between January 2013 and December 2020. Random sampling was used to divide patients into the training (n = 676) and validation cohorts (n = 291) at a 7:3 ratio. Multivariate logistic stepwise regression was used to establish a model for predicting 6-week mortality. Multiple indicators were used to validate the nomogram, including the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA).

RESULTS

In the training cohort, total bilirubin (TBIL) (odds ratio [OR] 1.75, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.22-2.50), hemoglobin (Hb) (OR 0.97, 95% CI 0.95-0.99), C-reactive protein (OR 2.79, 95% CI 1.30-6.07), prothrombin time (OR 1.17, 95% CI 1.05-1.30), and hepatic encephalopathy (stage I-II: OR 4.15, 95% CI 1.73-9.61; stage III-IV: OR 19.6, 95% CI 5.33-76.8) were identified as independent factors of 6-week mortality. The AUROC of the UGIB-LC score was 0.873 (95% CI 0.820-0.927), which was higher than that of the Child-Pugh score (0.781), model for end-stage liver disease score (0.766), and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (0.716).

CONCLUSION

The UGIB-LC score is useful for predicting 6-week mortality in patients with liver cirrhosis and acute UGIB, which is superior to the other three scoring systems.