Giuntella Osea, Rotunno Lorenzo, Stella Luca
Department of Economics, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA, USA; IZA, Bonn, Germany; National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA, USA.
Department of Economics, Aix-Marseille University, CNRS, AMSE, Marseille, France.
Demography. 2022 Dec 1;59(6):2135-2159. doi: 10.1215/00703370-10275366.
Declines in marriage and fertility rates in many developed countries have fostered research debate and increasing policy attention. Using longitudinal data from the German Socio-Economic Panel, we analyze the effects of exposure to globalization on fertility and marital behavior in Germany, which was a lowest-low fertility setting until recently. We find that exposure to greater import competition from Eastern Europe led to worse labor market outcomes and lower fertility rates. In contrast, workers in industries that benefited from increased exports had better employment prospects and higher fertility. These effects are driven by low-educated individuals, married men, and full-time workers and reflect changes in the likelihood of having any child (the extensive margin). We find evidence of some fertility postponement and significant effects on completed fertility, but we see little evidence of a significant impact on marital behavior. Our results inform the public debate on fertility rates in settings with lowest-low fertility, such as Germany, during the period under investigation.
许多发达国家结婚率和生育率的下降引发了研究讨论，并引起了政策制定者越来越多的关注。我们利用德国社会经济面板的纵向数据，分析了全球化对德国生育和婚姻行为的影响，德国直到最近一直处于极低生育率的状况。我们发现，来自东欧的更大进口竞争导致劳动力市场结果变差和生育率降低。相比之下，受益于出口增加的行业的工人就业前景更好，生育率更高。这些影响是由低学历个体、已婚男性和全职工作者推动的，反映了生育任何孩子的可能性（广度边际）的变化。我们发现了一些生育推迟的证据以及对终身生育率的显著影响，但几乎没有证据表明对婚姻行为有重大影响。我们的研究结果为调查期间德国等极低生育率背景下关于生育率的公众辩论提供了参考。
