Huang Guangyi, Liao Jie, Cai Songwang, Chen Zheng, Qin Xiaoping, Ba Longhong, Rao Jingmin, Zhong Weimin, Lin Ying, Liang Yuying, Wei Liwei, Li Jinhua, Deng Kaifeng, Li Xiangyue, Guo Zexiong, Wang Liang, Zhuo Yumin
Department of Urology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Jinan University, Jinan University, Guangzhou, China.
Department of Oncology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Jinan University, Jinan University, Guangzhou, China.
Front Oncol. 2022 Sep 28;12:949058. doi: 10.3389/fonc.2022.949058. eCollection 2022.
OBJECTIVES: Clear cell renal cell carcinoma (ccRCC) is highly prevalent, prone to metastasis, and has a poor prognosis after metastasis. Therefore, this study aimed to develop a prognostic model to predict the individualized prognosis of patients with metastatic clear cell renal cell carcinoma (mccRCC). PATIENTS AND METHODS: Data of 1790 patients with mccRCC, registered from 2010 to 2015, were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database. The included patients were randomly divided into a training set (n = 1253) and a validation set (n = 537) based on the ratio of 7:3. The univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were used to identify the important independent prognostic factors. A nomogram was then constructed to predict cancer specific survival (CSS). The performance of the nomogram was internally validated by using the concordance index (C-index), calibration plots, receiver operating characteristic curves, net reclassification improvement (NRI), integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), and decision curve analysis (DCA). We compared the nomogram with the TNM staging system. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was applied to validate the application of the risk stratification system. RESULTS: Diagnostic age, T-stage, N-stage, bone metastases, brain metastases, liver metastases, lung metastases, chemotherapy, radiotherapy, surgery, and histological grade were identified as independent predictors of CSS. The C-index of training and validation sets are 0.707 and 0.650 respectively. In the training set, the AUC of CSS predicted by nomogram in patients with mccRCC at 1-, 3- and 5-years were 0.770, 0.758, and 0.757, respectively. And that in the validation set were 0.717, 0.700, and 0.700 respectively. Calibration plots also showed great prediction accuracy. Compared with the TNM staging system, NRI and IDI results showed that the predictive ability of the nomogram was greatly improved, and DCA showed that patients obtained clinical benefits. The risk stratification system can significantly distinguish the patients with different survival risks. CONCLUSION: In this study, we developed and validated a nomogram to predict the CSS rate in patients with mccRCC. It showed consistent reliability and clinical applicability. Nomogram may assist clinicians in evaluating the risk factors of patients and formulating an optimal individualized treatment strategy.
目的:透明细胞肾细胞癌(ccRCC)发病率高,易发生转移,转移后预后较差。因此,本研究旨在建立一种预后模型,以预测转移性透明细胞肾细胞癌(mccRCC)患者的个体化预后。 患者与方法:从监测、流行病学和最终结果(SEER)数据库中提取2010年至2015年登记的1790例mccRCC患者的数据。根据7:3的比例将纳入的患者随机分为训练集(n = 1253)和验证集(n = 537)。采用单因素和多因素Cox回归分析确定重要的独立预后因素。然后构建列线图以预测癌症特异性生存(CSS)。通过一致性指数(C-index)、校准图、受试者工作特征曲线、净重新分类改善(NRI)、综合判别改善(IDI)和决策曲线分析(DCA)对列线图的性能进行内部验证。我们将列线图与TNM分期系统进行了比较。应用Kaplan-Meier生存分析来验证风险分层系统的应用。 结果:诊断年龄、T分期、N分期、骨转移、脑转移、肝转移、肺转移、化疗、放疗、手术和组织学分级被确定为CSS的独立预测因素。训练集和验证集的C-index分别为0.707和0.650。在训练集中,mccRCC患者列线图预测的CSS在1年、3年和5年时的AUC分别为0.770、0.758和0.757。在验证集中分别为0.717、0.700和0.700。校准图也显示出很高的预测准确性。与TNM分期系统相比,NRI和IDI结果表明列线图的预测能力有很大提高,DCA表明患者获得了临床益处。风险分层系统可以显著区分具有不同生存风险的患者。 结论:在本研究中,我们开发并验证了一种列线图,以预测mccRCC患者的CSS率。它显示出一致的可靠性和临床适用性。列线图可能有助于临床医生评估患者的风险因素并制定最佳的个体化治疗策略。
Life (Basel). 2021-12-24
Medicine (Baltimore). 2020-12-24
Minerva Urol Nephrol. 2021-8