School of Management, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei, 230009, China; Anhui Key Laboratory of Philosophy and Social Sciences of Energy and Environment Smart Management and Green Low Carbon Development, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei, 230009, China.
School of Management, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei, 230009, China; Anhui Key Laboratory of Philosophy and Social Sciences of Energy and Environment Smart Management and Green Low Carbon Development, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei, 230009, China.
J Environ Manage. 2023 Jan 1;325(Pt A):116423. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.116423. Epub 2022 Oct 13.
China's carbon emissions account for approximately a quarter of the world's total greenhouse gas emissions. In 2020, China's fossil fuels accounted for approximately 85% of the primary energy demand, with coal alone accounting for 60%. Considering the severe global warming situation, it is necessary to reveal the spatial and temporal differences and analyze the spillover effects of carbon emissions between regions. In this study, a positive and significant spatial correlation between regional carbon emissions in China was found using an exploratory spatial data analysis. The spatial Durbin model was then utilized to explore the direct and spillover effects of factors that included economic growth, the energy intensity, and the level of technological innovation on regional carbon emissions. Whether a direct effect or a spillover effect, economic growth and improvements in the regional levels of technological innovation had significant inhibitory effects on carbon emissions both in the long term and in the short term. Specifically, an increase of 1% in the level of technological innovation led to a reduction of approximately 0.17% in the region's carbon emissions. However, a growth in the energy intensity will increase carbon emissions. In addition, an increase in the technological input intensity will lead to an increase in carbon emissions in local regions. However, an increase in neighboring regions will restrain carbon emissions in a local region. Based on these findings, it is recommended that the government accelerate regional innovation synergies and increase investment in clean energy technologies.
中国的碳排放量约占世界温室气体排放总量的四分之一。2020 年，中国化石燃料约占一次能源需求的 85%，其中煤炭占 60%。考虑到全球变暖的严峻形势，有必要揭示中国各地区碳排放的时空差异，并分析区域间碳排放的溢出效应。本研究采用探索性空间数据分析方法，发现中国区域碳排放之间存在显著的正空间相关性。然后，利用空间杜宾模型探讨了经济增长、能源强度和技术创新水平等因素对区域碳排放的直接和溢出效应。无论是直接效应还是溢出效应，经济增长和区域技术创新水平的提高都对长期和短期的碳排放具有显著的抑制作用。具体而言，技术创新水平提高 1%，将导致该地区碳排放量减少约 0.17%。然而，能源强度的增加将导致碳排放的增加。此外，技术投入强度的增加将导致本地区域的碳排放增加，而相邻区域的增加将抑制本地区域的碳排放。基于这些发现，建议政府加快区域创新协同，加大对清洁能源技术的投资。
