School of Economics and Management, China University of Geosciences, Beijing, 100083, China; Key Laboratory of Carrying Capacity Assessment for Resource and Environment, Ministry of Natural Resources of the People's Republic of China, Beijing, 100083, China.
J Environ Manage. 2023 Jan 1;325(Pt A):116535. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.116535. Epub 2022 Oct 21.
China put forward that it would strive to achieve the carbon peaking in 2030 and carbon neutrality goals in 2060, which needed realizing the synergistic effect of pollution reduction and CO reduction. CO and PM from coal consumption were "homogenous and synchronous" and they had significant synergistic effect. The synergistic reduction of PM from coal consumption could have impacts on public health. The Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) was adopted to decompose the PM from coal consumption in China from 2012 to 2017 based on data availability and quantified the synergy. PM emissions from coal consumption were forecasted in 2030, 2035, 2050 and 2060, and its health effects of PM were estimated. The main conclusions were: (1) the synergy of CO and PM was the largest contribution factor of PM from coal consumption. (2) PM from coal consumption in 2060 would achieve the WHO air quality guidelines. (3) The most health effects economic loss from PM generated by coal consumption in China was in 2014. The health effects economic loss would have been decreased to negative by 2050. We should reinforce the synergistic effect of CO and PM, improve energy efficiency and optimize energy structure to achieve PM pollution control and reduce health effects economic loss.
中国提出力争在 2030 年前实现碳达峰、2060 年前实现碳中和的目标,需要实现污染减排与 CO 减排的协同效应。煤炭消费产生的 CO 和 PM 具有同源同步性,且存在显著协同效应。协同减少煤炭消费产生的 PM 对公众健康具有影响。基于数据可得性,采用对数平均迪氏指数(LMDI)方法对 2012—2017 年中国煤炭消费产生的 PM 进行分解,并对协同效应进行量化。对 2030 年、2035 年、2050 年和 2060 年煤炭消费产生的 PM 进行预测,并对其健康影响进行评估。主要结论为:(1)CO 和 PM 的协同是煤炭消费产生的 PM 的最大贡献因素。(2)2060 年中国煤炭消费产生的 PM 将达到世界卫生组织空气质量准则。(3)中国煤炭消费产生的 PM 造成的健康影响经济损失最大的年份是 2014 年,到 2050 年将减少到负值。应加强 CO 和 PM 的协同效应,提高能源效率,优化能源结构,实现 PM 污染控制和减少健康影响经济损失。