College of Environmental and Resource Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China.
Department of Land Resource Management, School of Tourism and Urban Management, Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics, Nanchang 330013, China.
Environ Int. 2022 Nov;169:107510. doi: 10.1016/j.envint.2022.107510. Epub 2022 Sep 8.
China implemented a stringent Air Clean Plan (ACP) since 2013 to address environmental and health risks caused by ambient fine particulate matter (PM). However, the policy effectiveness of ACP and co-benefits of carbon mitigation measures to environment and health are still largely unknown. Using satellite-based PM products produced in our previous study, concentration-response functions, and the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) method, we analyzed the spatiotemporal dynamics of premature deaths attributable to PM exposure, and quantitatively estimated the policy benefits of ACP and carbon mitigation measures. We found the annual PM concentrations in China decreased by 33.65 % (13.41 μg m) from 2014 to 2020, accompanied by a decrease in PM-attributable premature deaths of 0.23 million (95 % confidence interval (CI): 0.22-0.27), indicating the huge benefits of China ACP for human health and environment. However, there were still 1.12 million (95 % CI: 0.79-1.56) premature deaths caused by the exposure of PM in mainland China in 2020. Among all ACP measures, clean production (contributed 55.98 % and 51.14 % to decrease in PM and premature deaths attributable to PM) and energy consumption control (contributed 32.58 % and 29.54 % to decrease in PM and premature deaths attributable to PM) made the largest contribution during the past seven years. Nevertheless, the environmental and health benefits of ACP are not fully synergistic in different regions, and the effectiveness of ACP measures reduced from 2018 to 2020. The co-effects of CO and PM has become one of the major drivers for PM and premature deaths reduction since 2018, confirming the clear environment and health co-benefits of carbon mitigation measures. Our study suggests, with the saturation of clean production and source control, more targeted region-specific strategies and synergistic air pollution-carbon mitigation measures are critical to achieving the WHO's Air Quality Guideline target and the UN's Sustainable Development Goal Target in China.
中国自 2013 年以来实施了严格的《大气污染防治行动计划》(简称 ACP),以应对环境和健康风险。然而,ACP 的政策效果以及碳减排措施对环境和健康的协同效益在很大程度上仍不清楚。本研究利用我们之前研究中生成的基于卫星的 PM 产品、浓度-反应函数以及对数平均迪维西亚指数(LMDI)方法,分析了归因于 PM 暴露的过早死亡的时空动态,并定量估计了 ACP 和碳减排措施的政策效益。结果发现,2014 年至 2020 年,中国 PM 浓度每年下降 33.65%(13.41μg/m),归因于 PM 的过早死亡人数减少了 23 万(95%置信区间(CI):0.22-0.27),这表明中国 ACP 对人类健康和环境具有巨大效益。然而,2020 年中国大陆仍有 112 万人(95%CI:0.79-1.56)因 PM 暴露而过早死亡。在所有 ACP 措施中,清洁生产(对 PM 减少和归因于 PM 的过早死亡减少的贡献分别为 55.98%和 51.14%)和能源消耗控制(对 PM 减少和归因于 PM 的过早死亡减少的贡献分别为 32.58%和 29.54%)在过去七年中做出了最大贡献。然而,不同地区 ACP 的环境和健康效益并非完全协同,ACP 措施的有效性从 2018 年开始下降。自 2018 年以来,CO 和 PM 的共同效应已成为 PM 和过早死亡减少的主要驱动因素之一,证实了碳减排措施在环境和健康方面的明显协同效益。本研究表明,随着清洁生产和源头控制的饱和,更有针对性的、针对特定地区的策略和协同的空气污染-碳减排措施对于实现世界卫生组织的空气质量指南目标和联合国在中国的可持续发展目标目标至关重要。