Kasri Rahmatina Awaliah, Indrastomo Banjaran Surya, Hendranastiti Nur Dhani, Prasetyo Muhammad Budi
Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia, Indonesia.
Center for Islamic Economics and Business, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia, Indonesia.
Heliyon. 2022 Oct 22;8(11):e11198. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2022.e11198. eCollection 2022 Nov.
Previous studies provided limited conclusions on the relationship between digital payment and financial stability, particularly in an emerging economy with a dual banking system in which Islamic banking operates in parallel with its conventional counterpart, such as Indonesia. Therefore, this study aims to examine the impact of digitalisation on financial stability, particularly banking stability, in Indonesia. It uses Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models to investigate the relationship using monthly data during December 2013-July 2021 period. The digital payment transaction is proxied by payment penetration ratio (PPR); meanwhile financial stability is proxied by the value of Z-Score for the Indonesian banking industry. It also conducts a robustness check using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. The study found a cointegrating relationship between PPR and Z-Score, suggesting that digital payment transactions have an equilibrium and long-run relationship with banking stability in Indonesia. Further examination shows a one-direction causality from digital payment to banking stability and a positive short-run relationship between the variables. Interestingly, despite being the largest Muslim country globally, the estimation result shows no significant causality between digital payment and Islamic banking stability in Indonesia. While this might be due to the small size of Islamic banking in the country, it is expected that the impact will be more significant as Islamic digital banking starts to emerge and gain strong support from society and government in the post-covid period. Overall, our findings support policies promoting a more supportive regulatory ecosystem for a resilient banking and financial system in an emerging economy with a dual banking system.
以往的研究对数字支付与金融稳定之间的关系得出的结论有限，尤其是在像印度尼西亚这样拥有双重银行体系（伊斯兰银行与其传统银行并行运营）的新兴经济体中。因此，本研究旨在考察数字化对印度尼西亚金融稳定，特别是银行稳定性的影响。它使用向量误差修正模型（VECM）和向量自回归（VAR）模型，利用2013年12月至2021年7月期间的月度数据来研究这种关系。数字支付交易用支付渗透率（PPR）来代表；同时，金融稳定用印度尼西亚银行业的Z值来代表。它还使用自回归分布滞后（ARDL）模型进行了稳健性检验。研究发现PPR和Z值之间存在协整关系，这表明数字支付交易与印度尼西亚的银行稳定性存在均衡的长期关系。进一步的检验表明存在从数字支付到银行稳定性的单向因果关系，以及变量之间的正向短期关系。有趣的是，尽管印度尼西亚是全球最大的穆斯林国家，但估计结果表明数字支付与印度尼西亚伊斯兰银行稳定性之间没有显著的因果关系。虽然这可能是由于该国伊斯兰银行规模较小，但预计在后疫情时期，随着伊斯兰数字银行开始出现并获得社会和政府的大力支持，这种影响将更加显著。总体而言，我们的研究结果支持在拥有双重银行体系的新兴经济体中，为建立一个更具韧性的银行和金融体系而促进更具支持性的监管生态系统的政策。
