Enhanced Social Cognitive Theory Dynamic Modeling and Simulation Towards Improving the Estimation of "Just-In-Time" States.

Insufficient physical activity (PA) is commonplace in society, in spite of its significant impact on personal health and well-being. Improved interventions are clearly needed. One of the challenges faced in behavioral interventions is a lack of understanding of multi-timescale dynamics. In this paper we rely on a dynamical model of Social Cognitive Theory (SCT) to gain insights regarding a control-oriented experimental design for a behavioral intervention to improve PA. The intervention () is designed with the aim to better understand and estimate ideal times for intervention and support based on the concept of "just-in-time" states. An innovative input signal design strategy is used to study the just-in-time state dynamics through the use of decision rules based on conditions of need, opportunity and receptivity. Model simulations featuring within-day effects are used to assess input signal effectiveness. Scenarios for adherent and non-adherent participants are presented, with the proposed experimental design showing significant potential for reducing notification burden while providing informative data to support future system identification and control design efforts.