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有针对性地使用可持续航空燃料以最大化气候效益。

Targeted Use of Sustainable Aviation Fuel to Maximize Climate Benefits.

机构信息

Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Imperial College London, LondonSW7 2AZ, U.K.

Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt, 82234Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany.

出版信息

Environ Sci Technol. 2022 Dec 6;56(23):17246-17255. doi: 10.1021/acs.est.2c05781. Epub 2022 Nov 17.

Abstract

Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) can reduce aviation's CO and non-CO impacts. We quantify the change in contrail properties and climate forcing in the North Atlantic resulting from different blending ratios of SAF and demonstrate that intelligently allocating the limited SAF supply could multiply its overall climate benefit by factors of 9-15. A fleetwide adoption of 100% SAF increases contrail occurrence (+5%), but lower nonvolatile particle emissions (-52%) reduce the annual mean contrail net radiative forcing (-44%), adding to climate gains from reduced life cycle CO emissions. However, in the short term, SAF supply will be constrained. SAF blended at a 1% ratio and uniformly distributed to all transatlantic flights would reduce both the annual contrail energy forcing (EF) and the total energy forcing (EF, contrails + change in CO life cycle emissions) by ∼0.6%. Instead, targeting the same quantity of SAF at a 50% blend ratio to ∼2% of flights responsible for the most highly warming contrails reduces EF and EF by ∼10 and ∼6%, respectively. Acknowledging forecasting uncertainties, SAF blended at lower ratios (10%) and distributed to more flights (∼9%) still reduces EF (∼5%) and EF (∼3%). Both strategies deploy SAF on flights with engine particle emissions exceeding 10 m, at night-time, and in winter.

摘要

可持续航空燃料 (SAF) 可以减少航空的 CO 和非 CO 影响。我们量化了 SAF 不同混合比例对北大西洋平流层云特性和气候强迫的变化,并表明通过智能分配有限的 SAF 供应,可以将其整体气候效益提高 9-15 倍。全面采用 100% SAF 会增加平流层云的出现(增加 5%),但较低的非挥发性颗粒排放(减少 52%)会减少平流层云的年平均净辐射强迫(减少 44%),这增加了从减少生命周期 CO 排放中获得的气候收益。然而,短期内 SAF 的供应将受到限制。将 SAF 以 1%的混合比例并均匀分配给所有跨大西洋航班,将使年平流层云能量强迫(EF)和总能量强迫(EF,平流层云+生命周期 CO 排放变化)分别减少约 0.6%。相反,将等量的 SAF 目标设定为 50%的混合比例,分配给造成变暖最多的平流层云的 2%的航班,将分别减少 EF 和 EF 约 10%和 6%。考虑到预测的不确定性,SAF 以较低的混合比例(10%)和更多的航班(约 9%)进行混合,仍将减少 EF(约 5%)和 EF(约 3%)。这两种策略都将 SAF 部署在发动机颗粒排放量超过 10 m、夜间和冬季的航班上。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/2914/9730838/d668afea92e6/es2c05781_0002.jpg

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