Brazzola Nicoletta, Meskaldji Amir, Patt Anthony, Tröndle Tim, Moretti Christian
Institute for Environmental Decisions, ETH Zürich, 8092, Zürich, Switzerland.
Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis, PSI Center for Energy and Environmental Sciences, 5232, Villigen, Switzerland.
Nat Commun. 2025 Jan 11;16(1):588. doi: 10.1038/s41467-024-55482-6.
Growing demand for air travel and limited scalable solutions pose significant challenges to the mitigation of aviation's climate change impact. Direct air capture (DAC) may gain prominence due to its versatile applications for either carbon removal (direct air carbon capture and storage, DACCS) or synthetic fuel production (direct air carbon capture and utilization, DACCU). Through a comprehensive and time-dynamic techno-economic assessment, we explore the conditions for synthetic fuels from DACCU to become cost-competitive with an emit-and-remove strategy based on DACCS under 2050 CO and climate neutrality targets. We find that synthetic fuels could achieve climate neutrality at lower cost than an emit-and-remove strategy due to their ability to cost-effectively mitigate contrails. Under demand reductions, contrail avoidance, and CO neutrality targets the cost advantage of synthetic fuels weakens or disappears. Low electricity cost (€0.02 kWh) and high fossil kerosene prices (€0.9 l) can favor synthetic fuels' cost-competitiveness even under these conditions. Strategic interventions, such as optimal siting and the elimination of fossil fuel subsidies, can thus favor a shift away from fossil-reliant aviation.
航空旅行需求的不断增长以及有限的可扩展解决方案，给减轻航空业对气候变化的影响带来了重大挑战。直接空气捕获（DAC）可能会因其在碳去除（直接空气碳捕获与封存，DACCS）或合成燃料生产（直接空气碳捕获与利用，DACCU）方面的广泛应用而受到关注。通过全面且具有时间动态性的技术经济评估，我们探索了在2050年二氧化碳中和及气候中和目标下，DACCU生产的合成燃料与基于DACCS的排放与去除策略相比具有成本竞争力的条件。我们发现，合成燃料由于能够经济高效地减轻凝结尾迹，因此可以以低于排放与去除策略的成本实现气候中和。在需求减少、避免凝结尾迹和二氧化碳中和目标下，合成燃料的成本优势会减弱或消失。即使在这些条件下，低电价（0.02欧元/千瓦时）和高化石煤油价格（0.9欧元/升）也有利于合成燃料的成本竞争力。因此，诸如优化选址和取消化石燃料补贴等战略干预措施，可能有利于推动航空业摆脱对化石燃料的依赖。
