Tonic REM sleep muscle activity is the strongest predictor of phenoconversion risk to neurodegenerative disease in isolated REM sleep behaviour disorder.

Previous studies have shown that rapid eye movement sleep without atonia during polysomnography can predict the risk of phenoconversion to neurodegenerative disease in patients with isolated rapid eye movement sleep behaviour disorder. Discrepancy remains with regards to the morphology of rapid eye movement sleep without atonia that best predicts phenoconversion risk. This study aimed to ascertain the predictive value of tonic, phasic and mixed rapid eye movement sleep without atonia in patients with isolated rapid eye movement sleep behaviour disorder, at time of diagnosis. Sixty-four patients with polysomnography-confirmed isolated rapid eye movement sleep behaviour disorder, including 19 who phenoconverted during follow-up, were identified from an existing database. Tonic, phasic, mixed and "any" rapid eye movement sleep without atonia activity from the mentalis, tibialis anterior and flexor digitorum superficialis muscles was analysed blind to status using the diagnostic polysomnography. Rapid eye movement sleep without atonia variables were compared between converters and non-converters. Rapid eye movement sleep without atonia cut-offs predicting phenoconversion were established using receiver-operating characteristic analysis. The mean follow-up duration was 5.50 ± 4.73 years. Phenoconverters (n = 19) had significantly higher amounts of tonic (22.2 ± 19.1%, p = 0.0014), mixed (18.1 ± 14.1%, p = 0.0074) and "any" (mentalis muscle; 58.7 ± 28.0%, p = 0.0009) and all muscles (68.0 ± 20.8%, p = 0.0049) rapid eye movement sleep without atonia at diagnosis than non-converters. Optimal rapid eye movement sleep without atonia cut-off values predicting phenoconversion were 5.8% for tonic (73.7% sensitivity; 75.6% specificity), 7.3% for mixed (68.4% sensitivity; 73.3% specificity) and 43.6% for "any" (mentalis muscle; 68.4% sensitivity; 80.0% specificity) activity. "Any" (mentalis muscle) rapid eye movement sleep without atonia had the highest area under the curve (0.809) followed by tonic (0.799). The percentage of tonic rapid eye movement sleep without atonia was the strongest biomarker of phenoconversion in this cohort of patients with isolated rapid eye movement sleep behaviour disorder.