Wang Qiang, Dong Zequn, Li Rongrong
School of Economics and Management, Xinjiang University, Wulumuqi, 830046, People's Republic of China.
School of Economics and Management, China University of Petroleum (East China), Qingdao, 266580, People's Republic of China.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2023 Mar;30(11):31727-31740. doi: 10.1007/s11356-022-24358-x. Epub 2022 Dec 1.
A significant obstacle to the scaling of renewable energy is the concern that increased consumption of renewable energy could have a negative impact on economic growth, due to the higher cost of renewable energy compared to fossil energy. To examine how exactly renewable energy consumption impacts economic growth, this study uses a non-linear panel threshold model with trade openness, financial development, and per capita income as threshold variables, to analyze the long-term non-linear relationship between renewable energy consumption and economic growth in 28 European Union countries from 2007 to 2017. The results show that (i) renewable energy consumption has significant threshold effect on economic growth. First, the effect of renewable energy consumption on economic growth is positive and significant if and only if it surpasses a certain threshold of trade openness. Second, a moderate financial development interval makes the consumption of renewable energy have a positive effect on economic growth, and if it is too low or too high, it will have a negative effect. Third, as for income level, the promoting effect of renewable energy consumption on economic growth is showing a "stepwise growth" feature, which means, when the income level surpasses its threshold value, the positive effect is strengthened. (ii) The results of the fixed-effects model show that, overall, renewable energy consumption promotes economic growth. (iii) The changes in the number of countries in different threshold intervals indicate that the positive impact of renewable energy consumption on economic growth in the EU is increasing.
可再生能源规模扩大的一个重大障碍是人们担心,由于可再生能源成本高于化石能源,可再生能源消费增加可能会对经济增长产生负面影响。为了确切考察可再生能源消费如何影响经济增长,本研究使用了一个以贸易开放度、金融发展和人均收入为门槛变量的非线性面板门槛模型,来分析2007年至2017年28个欧盟国家可再生能源消费与经济增长之间的长期非线性关系。结果表明:(i)可再生能源消费对经济增长具有显著的门槛效应。首先,当且仅当可再生能源消费超过贸易开放度的某个门槛时,其对经济增长的影响才是正向且显著的。其次,适度的金融发展区间会使可再生能源消费对经济增长产生积极影响,而若金融发展水平过低或过高,都会产生负面影响。第三,就收入水平而言,可再生能源消费对经济增长的促进作用呈现出“阶梯式增长”特征,即当收入水平超过其门槛值时,正向效应会增强。(ii)固定效应模型的结果表明,总体而言,可再生能源消费促进经济增长。(iii)不同门槛区间内国家数量的变化表明,可再生能源消费对欧盟经济增长的积极影响正在增加。