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全球变暖正在加剧温带树木绿色(实际)季节和热量(潜在)季节之间的差异。

Global warming is increasing the discrepancy between green (actual) and thermal (potential) seasons of temperate trees.

作者信息

Fu Yongshuo H, Geng Xiaojun, Chen Shouzhi, Wu Hao, Hao Fanghua, Zhang Xuan, Wu Zhaofei, Zhang Jing, Tang Jing, Vitasse Yann, Zohner Constantin M, Janssens Ivan, Stenseth Nils Chr, Peñuelas Josep

机构信息

College of Water Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China.

General Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Planning and Design (GIWP), Ministry of Water Resources, Beijing, China.

出版信息

Glob Chang Biol. 2023 Mar;29(5):1377-1389. doi: 10.1111/gcb.16545. Epub 2022 Dec 15.

DOI:10.1111/gcb.16545
PMID:36459482
Abstract

Over the past decades, global warming has led to a lengthening of the time window during which temperatures remain favorable for carbon assimilation and tree growth, resulting in a lengthening of the green season. The extent to which forest green seasons have tracked the lengthening of this favorable period under climate warming, however, has not been quantified to date. Here, we used remote sensing data and long-term ground observations of leaf-out and coloration for six dominant species of European trees at 1773 sites, for a total of 6060 species-site combinations, during 1980-2016 and found that actual green season extensions (GS: 3.1 ± 0.1 day decade ) lag four times behind extensions of the potential thermal season (TS: 12.6 ± 0.1 day decade ). Similar but less pronounced differences were obtained using satellite-derived vegetation phenology observations, that is, a lengthening of 4.4 ± 0.13 and 7.5 ± 0.13 day decade for GS and TS, respectively. This difference was mainly driven by the larger advance in the onset of the thermal season compared to the actual advance of leaf-out dates (spring mismatch: 7.2 ± 0.1 day decade ), but to a less extent caused by a phenological mismatch between GS and TS in autumn (2.4 ± 0.1 day decade ). Our results showed that forest trees do not linearly track the new thermal window extension, indicating more complex interactions between winter and spring temperatures and photoperiod and a justification of demonstrating that using more sophisticated models that include the influence of chilling and photoperiod is needed to accurately predict spring phenological changes under warmer climate. They urge caution if such mechanisms are omitted to predict, for example, how vegetative health and growth, species distribution and crop yields will change in the future.

摘要

在过去几十年里,全球变暖导致气温保持在有利于碳同化和树木生长的时间窗口延长,从而使生长季延长。然而,迄今为止,尚未对气候变暖下森林生长季追踪这一有利时期延长的程度进行量化。在此,我们利用1980 - 2016年期间1773个站点6种欧洲主要树种的遥感数据以及叶出和变色的长期地面观测数据,共计6060个物种 - 站点组合,发现实际生长季延长(GS:每十年3.1±0.1天)比潜在热季延长(TS:每十年12.6±0.1天)滞后四倍。使用卫星衍生的植被物候观测数据也得到了类似但不太明显的差异,即GS和TS每十年分别延长4.4±0.13天和7.5±0.13天。这种差异主要是由于热季开始时间的提前幅度大于叶出日期的实际提前幅度(春季错配:每十年7.2±0.1天),但秋季GS和TS之间的物候错配(每十年2.4±0.1天)在较小程度上也有影响。我们的结果表明,森林树木并没有线性地追踪新的热窗口延长,这表明冬季和春季温度与光周期之间存在更复杂的相互作用,也证明了需要使用更复杂的模型(包括低温和光周期的影响)来准确预测气候变暖下的春季物候变化。如果在预测例如未来植被健康和生长、物种分布及作物产量将如何变化时忽略这些机制,就需要谨慎对待。

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