Can human activities enhance the trade-off intensity of ecosystem services in arid inland river basins? Taking the Taolai River asin as an example.

Driven by economic and social factors, more and more human beings intervene in nature to promote rapid economic and social development at the expense of ecosystem services (ES), which inevitably leads to the occurrence and even aggravation of ES trade-offs. Especially in the arid inland river basin is more serious. Therefore, this paper takes the Taolai River Basin as an example and uses the InVEST model to evaluate the spatial distribution of four typical ES, including carbon sequestration, oxygen release, windbreak and sand fixation, and water production, under the potential-actual states of the watershed. And use the Pearson correlation coefficient and the root mean square error (RMSE) to analyze the trade-off relationship between services from qualitative and quantitative aspects, respectively. Finally, the spatial matching types of trade-offs in the potential-actual states are discussed using Bivariate Local Indicators of Spatial Association, and the degree and scope of the impact of human activities on trade-offs are analyzed. The results show that the spatial distribution of the four ES has obvious heterogeneity in the potential-actual states, and the service volume of most services in the potential state is much higher than in the actual state. Secondly, there is a significant trade-offs relationship between Water production and Carbon sequestration and Oxygen release services under the potential state, while the actual state under the impact of human activities shows a significant synergistic relationship, which shows that human activities will not only increase the probability of trade-off will also increase the probability of synergy between ES. Finally, through the analysis of the meaning and causes of "high and low space dislocation" and "low and high space dislocation", it is shown that human activities will not only increase but also weaken the trade-off intensity of ES. The results of this study can provide a certain scientific basis for regional ecological environment planning and promote regional people to share ecological well-being.