School of Economics and Statistics, Guangzhou University, Guangzhou 510006, China.
School of Mathematics and Statistics, Liaoning University, Shenyang 110036, China.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2022 Dec 5;19(23):16293. doi: 10.3390/ijerph192316293.
Based on cross-sectional data from 30 Chinese provinces from 2004 to 2017, this paper systematically examines the nonlinear effects of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on carbon emissions and its causes using the PSTR model. It is found that the impact of EPU on carbon emissions at the provincial level in China has significant nonlinear characteristics and shows a positive and then negative pattern as the level of EPU increases. Furthermore, increased levels of EPU also cause a nonlinear migration of the effects of provincial economic and financial development, industrial structure, government spending, and environmental regulation on carbon emissions, illustrating a large amount of heterogeneity among Chinese provinces. Specifically, provinces with higher levels of economic and financial development experience a greater positive carbon emission effect from EPU, whereas provinces with lower levels of such development experience a greater negative carbon emission effect. In contrast, in provinces with irrational industrial structures, lower fiscal expenditures, and weaker environmental controls, the nonlinear carbon emission consequences of EPU are greater. Therefore, local governments should prudently adjust economic policies, improve and perfect the market information disclosure system, and afford full play to regional comparative advantages to help achieve the "double carbon goal".
基于 2004 年至 2017 年中国 30 个省份的横截面数据，本文利用 PSTR 模型系统地检验了经济政策不确定性（EPU）对碳排放的非线性影响及其原因。研究结果表明，EPU 对中国省级层面碳排放的影响具有显著的非线性特征，随着 EPU 水平的提高呈现出先正后负的模式。此外，EPU 水平的提高还导致了省级经济和金融发展、产业结构、政府支出和环境监管对碳排放影响的非线性迁移，说明了中国各省份之间存在大量的异质性。具体而言，经济和金融发展水平较高的省份，EPU 对碳排放的正向影响更大，而经济和金融发展水平较低的省份，EPU 对碳排放的负向影响更大。相比之下，在产业结构不合理、财政支出较低和环境管制较弱的省份，EPU 的非线性碳排放后果更大。因此，地方政府应审慎调整经济政策，完善和健全市场信息披露制度，充分发挥区域比较优势，助力实现“双碳目标”。
