Long-term exposure to particulate matter and COPD mortality: Insights from causal inference methods based on a large population cohort in southern China.

BACKGROUND

Evidence of the association between long-term exposure to particulate matter (PM) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) mortality from large population-based cohort study is limited and often suffers from residual confounding issues with traditional statistical methods. We hereby assessed the casual relationship between long-term PM (PM, PM and PM) exposure and COPD mortality in a large cohort of Chinese adults using state-of-the-art causal inference approaches.

METHODS

A total of 580,757 participants in southern China were enrolled in a prospective cohort study from 2009 to 2015 and followed up until December 2020. Exposures to PM at each residential address were obtained from the Long-term Gap-free High-resolution Air Pollutant Concentration dataset. Marginal structural Cox models were used to investigate the association between COPD mortality and annual average exposure levels of PM exposure.

RESULTS

During an average follow-up of 8.0 years, 2250 COPD-related deaths occurred. Under a set of causal inference assumptions, the hazard ratio (HR) for COPD mortality was estimated to be 1.046 (95 % confidence interval: 1.034-1057), 1.037 (1.028-1.047), and 1.032 (1.006-1.058) for each 1-μg/m increase in annual average concentrations of PM, PM, and PM respectively. Additionally, the detrimental effects appeared to be more pronounced among the elderly (age ≥ 65) and inactive participants. The effect estimates of PM, PM, and PM tend to be greater among participants who were generally exposed to PM concentrations below 70 μg/m than that among the general population.

CONCLUSION

Our results support causal links between long-term PM exposure and COPD mortality, highlighting the urgency for more effective strategies to reduce PM exposure, with particular attention on protecting potentially vulnerable groups.