Estimating causal links of long-term exposure to particulate matters with all-cause mortality in South China.

BACKGROUND

The association between long-term particulate matter (PM) exposure and all-cause mortality has been well-documented. However, evidence is still limited from high-exposed cohorts, especially for PM which is smaller while more toxic than other commonly investigated particles. We aimed to examine the potential casual links of long-term PMs exposure with all-cause mortality in high-exposed areas.

METHODS

A total of 580,757 participants in southern China were enrolled during 2009-2015 and followed up to 2020. The annual average concentration of PM, PM, and PM at 1 km spatial resolution was assessed for each residential address through validated spatiotemporal models. We used marginal structural Cox models to estimate the PM-mortality associations which were further stratified by sociodemographic, lifestyle factors and general exposure levels.

RESULTS

37,578 deaths were totally identified during averagely 8.0 years of follow-up. Increased exposure to all 3 PM size fractions were significantly associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality, with hazard ratios (HRs) of 1.042 (95 % confidence interval (CI): 1.037-1.046), 1.031 (95 % CI: 1.028-1.033), and 1.029 (95 % CI: 1.027-1.031) per 1 μg/m increase in PM, PM, and PM concentrations, respectively. We observed greater effect estimates among the elderly (age ≥ 65 years), unmarried participants, and those with low education attainment. Additionally, the effect of PM, PM, and PM tend to be higher in the low-exposure group than in the general population.

CONCLUSIONS

We provided comprehensive evidence for the potential causal links betweenlong-term PM exposureand all-cause mortality, and suggested stronger links for PMcompared to large particles and among certain vulnerable subgroups.