预测日本在免疫效果减弱和加强针接种情况下的 COVID-19 免疫景观。

Projecting the COVID-19 immune landscape in Japan in the presence of waning immunity and booster vaccination.

机构信息

Kyoto University School of Public Health, Yoshida-Konoe, Sakyo, Kyoto 606-8601, Japan.

出版信息

J Theor Biol. 2023 Feb 21;559:111384. doi: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2022.111384. Epub 2022 Dec 14.

Abstract

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) booster vaccination has been implemented globally in the midst of surges in infection due to the Delta and Omicron variants of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The objective of the present study was to present a framework to estimate the proportion of the population that is immune to symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection with the Omicron variant (immune proportion) in Japan, considering the waning of immunity resulting from vaccination and naturally acquired infection. We quantified the decay rate of immunity against symptomatic infection with Omicron conferred by the second and third doses of COVID-19 vaccine. We estimated the current and future vaccination coverage for the second and third vaccine doses from February 17, 2021 to August 1, 2022 and used data on the confirmed COVID-19 incidence from February 17, 2021 to April 10, 2022. From this information, we estimated the age-specific immune proportion over the period from February 17, 2021 to August 1, 2022. Vaccine-induced immunity, conferred by the second vaccine dose in particular, was estimated to rapidly wane. There were substantial variations in the estimated immune proportion by age group because each age cohort experienced different vaccination rollout timing and speed as well as a different infection risk. Such variations collectively contributed to heterogeneous immune landscape trajectories over time and age. The resulting prediction of the proportion of the population that is immune to symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection could aid decision-making on when and for whom another round of booster vaccination should be considered. This manuscript was submitted as part of a theme issue on "Modelling COVID-19 and Preparedness for Future Pandemics".

摘要

新型冠状病毒病 2019(COVID-19)疫苗加强接种在因严重急性呼吸系统综合征冠状病毒 2(SARS-CoV-2)的德尔塔和奥密克戎变异株感染激增的情况下在全球范围内实施。本研究的目的是提出一个框架,以考虑到接种和自然感染导致的免疫力下降,来估计日本对奥密克戎变异株有症状 SARS-CoV-2 感染的人群免疫比例(免疫比例)。我们量化了第二和第三剂 COVID-19 疫苗对奥密克戎引起的有症状感染的免疫力的衰减速度。我们根据 2021 年 2 月 17 日至 2022 年 8 月 1 日的第二和第三剂疫苗接种覆盖率以及 2021 年 2 月 17 日至 2022 年 4 月 10 日的确诊 COVID-19 发病率数据,对当前和未来的第二和第三剂疫苗接种覆盖率进行了估计。从这些信息中,我们估计了 2021 年 2 月 17 日至 2022 年 8 月 1 日期间各年龄段的特定免疫比例。特别是第二剂疫苗产生的疫苗诱导免疫被估计会迅速下降。由于每个年龄组经历不同的疫苗推出时间和速度以及不同的感染风险,因此按年龄组估计的免疫比例存在很大差异。这些差异共同导致了随时间和年龄的异质免疫景观轨迹。对有症状 SARS-CoV-2 感染人群免疫比例的预测结果可有助于决策何时以及对哪些人应考虑再次进行加强接种。本手稿是作为关于“COVID-19 建模和为未来大流行做准备”主题专刊的一部分提交的。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/4908/9749381/6fee19d0afcf/gr1_lrg.jpg

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