School of Business, Fuyang Normal University, Fuyang 236037, China.
School of Biological Science and Food Engineering, Fuyang Normal University, Fuyang 236037, China.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2022 Dec 7;19(24):16424. doi: 10.3390/ijerph192416424.
Global warming and world-wide climate change caused by increasing carbon emissions have attracted a widespread public attention, while anthropogenic activities account for most of these problems generated in the social economy. In order to comprehensively measure the levels of carbon emissions and carbon sinks in Anhui Province, the study adopted some specific carbon accounting methods to analyze and explore datasets from the following suggested five carbon emission sources of energy consumption, food consumption, cultivated land, ruminants and waste, and three carbon sink sources of forest, grassland and crops to compile the carbon emission inventory in Anhui Province. Based on the compiled carbon emission inventory, carbon emissions and carbon sink capacity were calculated from 2000 to 2019 in Anhui Province, China. Combined with ridge regression and scenario analysis, the STIRPAT model was used to evaluate and predict the regional carbon emission from 2020 to 2040 to explore the provincial low-carbon development pathways, and carbon emissions of various industrial sectors were systematically compared and analyzed. Results showed that carbon emissions increased rapidly from 2000 to 2019 and regional energy consumption was the primary source of carbon emissions in Anhui Province. There were significant differences found in the increasing carbon emissions among various industries. The consumption proportion of coal in the provincial energy consumption continued to decline, while the consumption of oil and electricity proceeded to increase. Furthermore, there were significant differences among different urban and rural energy structures, and the carbon emissions from waste incineration were increasing. Additionally, there is an inverted "U"-shape curve of correlation between carbon emission and economic development in line with the environmental Kuznets curve, whereas it indicated a "positive U"-shaped curve of correlation between carbon emission and urbanization rate. The local government should strengthen environmental governance, actively promote industrial transformation, and increase the proportion of clean energy in the energy production and consumption structures in Anhui Province. These also suggested a great potential of emission reduction with carbon sink in Anhui Province.
全球变暖及由碳排放增加引起的全球气候变化已引起广泛关注，而人为活动是造成社会经济中这些问题的主要原因。为全面衡量安徽省的碳排放量和碳汇水平，本研究采用特定的碳核算方法，分析和探讨了来自能源消费、食品消费、耕地、反刍动物和废弃物五个碳排放源和森林、草地和农作物三个碳汇源的数据，编制了安徽省的碳排放量清单。基于编制的碳排放量清单，计算了 2000 年至 2019 年安徽省的碳排放量和碳汇能力。结合岭回归和情景分析，利用 STIRPAT 模型对 2020 年至 2040 年安徽省的区域碳排放量进行了评价和预测，探讨了该省的低碳发展路径，并对各工业部门的碳排放量进行了系统的比较和分析。结果表明，2000 年至 2019 年，安徽省的碳排放量迅速增加，区域能源消费是安徽省碳排放量的主要来源。各行业碳排放量增长存在显著差异。安徽省能源消费中煤炭消费比例持续下降，而石油和电力消费持续增加。此外，不同城乡能源结构存在显著差异，垃圾焚烧产生的碳排放量也在增加。此外，碳排放量与经济发展之间存在符合环境库兹涅茨曲线的倒“U”型关系，而与城市化率之间则存在正“U”型关系。地方政府应加强环境治理，积极推动产业转型，提高清洁能源在能源生产和消费结构中的比例。这也表明安徽省在碳减排和碳汇方面有很大的减排潜力。
