[The risk of incident gastric cancer for populations with different precancerous gastric lesions: a prospective follow-up study].

To provide evidence for optimizing the screening strategy for gastric cancer (GC), we evaluated the risk of incident GC for individuals with different precancerous gastric lesions in a prospective cohort study. Based on the National Upper Gastrointestinal Cancer Early Detection Program launched in Linqu, Shandong, a high-risk area of gastric cancer in China, we included a total of 14 087 subjects diagnosed with different gastric lesions stages by endoscopic screening from 2012 to 2018. Study subjects were prospectively followed up until December 31, 2019. The incidence of GC during the follow-up was ascertained by repeated endoscopic examinations, cancer, death registry reports, and active follow-up of study subjects and was confirmed by reviewing medical records extracted from the hospital information management system. The Poisson regression model was applied to calculate the relative risk () and 95% for GC occurrence among subjects with different gastric lesions. Among 14 087 subjects with different gastric lesions as determined by their first endoscopic examination in 2012-2018, 7 608 (54.00%) had a global diagnosis of superficial gastritis (SG), 2 848 (20.22%) had chronic atrophic gastritis (CAG), 3 103 (22.03%) had intestinal metaplasia (IM), and 520 (3.69%) had low-grade intestinal neoplasia (LGIN). During the follow-up, 109 subjects were diagnosed with GC, including 63 with high-grade intestinal neoplasia (HGIN) and 46 with invasive GC. Compared to subjects having normal gastric mucosa or SG, those with CAG (=3.85, 95%: 2.04-7.28), IM (=5.18, 95%: 2.79-9.60), and LGIN (=19.08, 95%: 9.97-36.53) had significantly increased risk of progression to GC. Individuals with these gastric lesions had an elevated risk of developing HGIN and invasive GC. For subjects with LGIN, the was 22.96 (95%: 9.71-54.27) for developing HGIN and 14.64 (95%: 5.37-39.93) for developing invasive GC. Subgroup analyses found that all age group subjects with LGIN diagnosed during the initial endoscopic examination had a significantly increased risk of developing the GC. Our large-scale prospective study on a high-risk area of GC showed that most residents aged 40-69 years had gastric lesions of different stages. Subjects with more advanced gastric lesions had a significantly increased risk of progression to GC.