Department of Urology, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA; Department of Urology, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN.
Department of Urology, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA.
Urology. 2023 Mar;173:134-141. doi: 10.1016/j.urology.2022.12.009. Epub 2022 Dec 24.
OBJECTIVE: To describe the risk of multiple recurrences in intermediate-risk non-muscle invasive bladder cancer (IR-NMIBC) and their impact on progression. Prognostic studies of IR-NMIBC have focused on initial recurrences, yet little is known about subsequent recurrences and their impact on progression. MATERIALS AND METHODS: IR-NMIBC patients from the Be-Well Study, a prospective cohort study of NMIBC patients diagnosed from 2015 to 2019 at Kaiser Permanente Northern California, were identified. The frequency of first, second, and third intravesical recurrences of urothelial carcinoma were characterized using conditional Kaplan-Meier analyses and random-effects shared-frailty models. The association of multiple recurrences with progression was examined. RESULTS: In 291 patients with IR-NMIBC (median follow-up 38 months), the 5-year risk of initial recurrence was 54.4%. After initial recurrence (n = 137), 60.1% of patients had a second recurrence by 2 years. After second recurrence (n = 70), 51.5% of patients had a third recurrence by 3 years. In multivariable analysis, female sex (Hazard Ratio 1.51, P< .01), increasing tumor size (HR 1.14, P< .01) and number of prior recurrences (HR 1.24, P< .01) were associated with multiple recurrences; whereas maintenance BCG (HR 0.66, P = .03) was associated with reduced recurrences. The 5-year risk of progression varied significantly (P< .01) by number of recurrences: 9.5%, 21.9%, and 37.9% for patients with 1, 2, and 3+ recurrences, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Multiple recurrences are common in IR-NMIBC and are associated with progression. Female sex, larger tumors, number of prior recurrences, and lack of maintenance BCG were associated with multiple recurrences. Multiple recurrences may prove useful as a clinical trial endpoint for IR-NMIBC.
目的:描述中危非肌肉浸润性膀胱癌(IR-NMIBC)的多次复发风险及其对进展的影响。IR-NMIBC 的预后研究集中在初始复发上,但对后续复发及其对进展的影响知之甚少。
材料和方法:本研究纳入了 2015 年至 2019 年期间在 Kaiser Permanente Northern California 诊断为 NMIBC 的患者的前瞻性队列研究 Be-Well 研究中的 IR-NMIBC 患者。使用条件 Kaplan-Meier 分析和随机效应共享脆弱性模型描述尿路上皮癌的首次、第二次和第三次膀胱内复发的频率。还检查了多次复发与进展的关系。
结果:在 291 例 IR-NMIBC 患者(中位随访 38 个月)中,初始复发的 5 年风险为 54.4%。在初始复发后(n=137),60.1%的患者在 2 年内出现第二次复发。在第二次复发后(n=70),51.5%的患者在 3 年内出现第三次复发。多变量分析显示,女性(风险比 1.51,P<.01)、肿瘤大小增加(HR 1.14,P<.01)和既往复发次数增加(HR 1.24,P<.01)与多次复发相关;而维持性 BCG(HR 0.66,P=.03)与复发减少相关。进展的 5 年风险随复发次数的不同而显著变化(P<.01):分别为 1、2 和 3+次复发的患者为 9.5%、21.9%和 37.9%。
结论:IR-NMIBC 中多次复发很常见,且与进展相关。女性、较大的肿瘤、既往复发次数以及缺乏维持性 BCG 与多次复发相关。多次复发可能可作为 IR-NMIBC 的临床试验终点。
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